Port tracker: Container shipping continues slide
Cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports is expected to drop 7.1 percent this year, making it the slowest year in container shipping to the United States in at least four years, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Friday by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
Volume fell again in October and is projected to total 15.3 million TEUs for the year, compared with 16.5 million TEUs in 2007. It would be the lowest total since 2004, when 14 million TEUs moved through the ports. The estimate is down from the 15.4 million projected a month ago, which would have been a 6.5 percent decline from 2007 and the lowest number since 2005's 15.4 million TEUs.
'Retail sales forecasts this year are the lowest they've been in more than half a decade, and the cargo volume we're seeing reflects those numbers,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a statement. 'The balancing act between supply and demand is tougher than ever because retailers want to make sure they have enough merchandise on the shelves to satisfy customers and not be forced into unplanned markdowns to move excess inventory once the holidays are over.'
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.33 million TEUs in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 2.9 percent from August and 9.8 percent from September 2007. October was estimated at 1.36 million TEUs, down 5.7 percent from a year ago. If estimates hold true, October will have been the peak-shipping month for 2008 but will have fallen significantly short of the 2007 peak of 1.48 million TEUs set last September.
November is forecast at 1.26 million TEUs, down 8.7 percent, and December is forecast at 1.21 million TEUs, down 5.5 percent. January 2009 is forecast at 1.17 million TEUs, down 5 percent, and February — traditionally the slowest month of the year — is forecast at 1.12 million TEUs, down 8.3 percent. The first year-over-year increase in months is expected in March, which is forecast at 1.18 million TEUs, a 2.3 percent increase from March 2008.
Meanwhile, Port Tracker's congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the nation's two largest retail container ports — continues at medium because collection of fees for the new Clean Truck Program there begins this month.
'The October startup of the Clean Truck Program regulations did not cause the disruptions we had been concerned about, but collection of fees for the program begins this month and it is not clear that all trucks will be ready,' IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. 'Despite that, weak import demand has reduced pressure for port truck drivers, so capacity should be adequate.'
The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker — Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.
Port tracker: Container shipping continues slide
