Record year forecast for agricultural exports

Record year forecast for agricultural exports    A revised global market forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service predicts that American agricultural exports sales will reach $61.5 billion in fiscal year 2004, a $5.3 billion increase over the previous fiscal year and an overall record for the country.
   “This latest export sales forecast clearly indicates that our efforts to expand overseas market opportunities for our farmers and ranchers are working,” said U.S. agriculture secretary Ann M. Veneman in a May 26 statement.
   “With some of our recent market re-openings and continued strong commodity prices, we are well on the way to setting a new export sales record,” she said. The last agricultural export record was set back in fiscal year 1996 at $59.8 billion.
   American agricultural commodity exports to China are on the rise. According to the USDA report, exports to China have more than tripled since the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization, increasing from $1.8 billion in 2001 to $3.5 billion in 2003. This fiscal year U.S. agricultural exports to China are expected to exceed $5.9 billion. China is the fifth largest importer of U.S. agricultural goods and largest overseas market overall for American soybeans, cotton and hides.
   The USDA report said wheat and corn exports will account for about 50 percent of the annual increase in agricultural exports in fiscal year 2004, benefiting from poor wheat harvests in Europe, Russia and Ukraine and increased corn sales to Egypt, Colombia, Israel and Korea.
   Cotton export sales are expected to reach $4.2 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion over fiscal year 2003. Horticultural export sales will set record sales of $13.5 billion with brisk markets in Canada and Mexico and select markets in Europe and Asia.
   The 2004 forecast for livestock and meat products will reach about $7 billion, a $1 billion increase over the February forecast level. The USDA said this increase is due to the high beef, pork and poultry prices and efforts to reopen overseas markets after the import bans placed on these products after the recent findings of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza. Livestock exports in fiscal year 2003 totaled $9 billion, USDA said.
   U.S. imports of agricultural goods in fiscal year 2004 will reach $51.5 billion, a $5.8 billion increase over the previous fiscal year, resulting in an agricultural trade surplus of $10 billion.
   “As they have for the past three decades, horticultural imports continue to rise, accounting for about half of the overall import gain,” USDA said. “Off-season demand for fresh products and competitive prices are driving the long-term growth in imported fruits and vegetables.”
   The complete USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports report is available on line at https://www.ers.usda.gov.