After October’s container forecast showed signs of container traffic potentially breaking the TEU record, more recent port statistics have confirmed the prediction and even suggest that Drewry will need to raise the outlook by the end of the year.
Drewry’s Global Container Port Throughput Index for September showed numbers nearly 10 points above the same month in 2016, with the overall trend being “relentlessly positive” in 2017, the index said.
The index shows that all regions experienced year-over-year improvement, with the fastest growing regions being North America, up 12.6 percent; Latin America, up 11.1 percent; and China, up 10.3 percent. The slowest was Europe, at 4.4 percent, said Drewry.
Drewry also analyzed trade flow statistics to see which regions are doing more or less business with one another: “Data gathered from CTS, PIERS and Datamar in a selection of key trades indicates that two-way traffic in some of the world’s largest trades was in the region of 4-5 percent higher after nine months of 2017,” said Drewry, with the total increase of capacity across the sample group being 4.1 million TEUs.
Only two trades showed negative growth – Asia-Oceania and Europe-Middle East. In general, the “East-West” trades connecting Asia, North America and Europe, were strongest at 5 percent in aggregate, versus 3.4 percent for the sample of “North-South” routes, said Drewry. About 30 percent of the total increase in capacity came from extra Intra-Asia (including Chinese domestic) activity, while 43 percent came from the Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes, or 1.8 million TEUs of the additional traffic. The Asia-South Asia trade was the largest North-South contributor, adding another 270,000 TEUs to the sample total, said Drewry.
Not only has the container data shown promise, but the IMF has also bumped up the 2017 and 2018 GDP forecast by 0.1 points. “Another factor that makes us more confident for the container demand outlook for this and next year is the improving macro-economic backdrop…This follows similar incremental improvements made over the past year,” said Drewry.
