Sea change

Sea change       It appears 2009 has heralded a permanent shift in the balance of power
of the global container trades.
      Imports into Asia and intra-Asia volume led the box recovery in the second half of 2009, said Mathijs Slangen, senior analyst for cargo advisory for the consultant Seabury. Intra-Asia volume, for instance, grew 0.8 percent in 2009 while the global container trade was down 9.8 percent, with consumer goods and perishables leading the way.
      'It's quite interesting to see because in the past, the fastest growing commodities were raw materials and semi-manufactured goods,' he said.
      Also interesting was that the commodities that grew the slowest from 2000 through 2008, including fashion goods and temperature-controlled cargo, fared the best in 2009.
      'That shows these categories were less affected by the downturn,' Slangen said. 'And that's manifested itself now by a shortage of reefer capacity in many trades.'
      Also notable is that the growing influence of China actually accelerated in 2009, despite the country suffering a steep drop in exports to the United States. China's exports to less mature markets grew, while its intake of imports also grew.
      For example, German exports to China grew 25 percent in 2009, even as Chinese exports to the United States fell 20 percent.
      'Last year was also the first time that more than half of German imports came from China,' Slangen said. 'I don't believe these trends will reverse in 2010.'
      Slangen said Seabury is projecting an 11 percent to 16 percent rise in global container volume in 2010, though 'that's without a double dip we expect to see in the second half of the year, so it's more likely to be 11 percent than 16 percent. And keep in mind, minus 10 percent in 2009 and plus 11 percent in 2010 is not really impressive. It's not a drastic recovery.'
      Slangen said U.S. volume in 2009 was closest to the levels seen in 2004: 'It's difficult to look at year-on-year growth figures right now that aren't misleading.'