Seabury forecasts annual ocean freight growth at 5.3% through 2018

The transportation advisory firm said 2014 container volumes rose 5 percent on the westbound transpacific and 9 percent from Asia to Europe, but all North American export lanes struggled.    The transportation consultancy firm Seabury estimates that annual global ocean freight growth will be 5.3 percent between 2015 and 2018, according to forecasts based on the company’s ocean trade database.
   Labeling the growth “moderate,” Seabury said that growth still lags well behind annual growth rates for container trade in 2000-2004 (11 percent) and 2004-2008 (8 percent) periods, but well above the “stagnant” growth from 2008-2013 (3.1 percent).
   Seabury noted that growth in the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent region will far surpass global growth rates – it projects annual growth from 2015 through 2018 at 7.4 percent for the region. This would continue the trend of the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent region’s ocean freight growing faster than global rates.
   For the whole of 2014, volume on the eastbound transpacific grew 5 percent, while the westbound Asia-Europe trade grew 9 percent. Intra-Asia trade grew 5 percent, while North America export lanes (to Asia and Europe) saw relatively little growth, at 2 percent for both. Trade from North America to South America fell 2 percent.