Stifel logistics index shows prolonged slump in confidence

After reaching high point in September, an index measuring market sentiment declined for most lanes in both air and ocean segments.    The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index continued to show a slump in confidence in the logistics sector, as it fell to 56.3 in February, down from a high reading of 59.2 in September.
   The index, compiled by the advisory firm Transport Intelligence, measures market sentiment around the forwarding industry. Ti noted that although the index is down from September, it is still 0.3 points higher than the reading in February 2014 and 3.8 higher than in February 2013.
   “The uncertainty in the six-month outlook for air and sea may be the culprit for the bumpy patch,” Ti and Stifel said. “Indeed, there is much uncertainty, ranging from economic slowing in key economies as China and Europe to port congestion and to overcapacity.”
   The air sub-index showed no change in the six-month outlook but it did show a 1.2 point decline for the present situation.
   “This decline was attributed to large declines for the Europe to Asia and Asia to Europe lanes, which declined by 2.5 points and 3.2 points respectively, to 44.7 and 58.7,” Ti and Stifel said. “This is the third consecutive month in which the Europe to Asia lane is below the 50-level and it is now at its lowest point since September 2013 when it recorded a 42.4 reading.”
   U.S. lanes recorded declines as well, with Europe to the United States dropping 1.5 points, to 62.4, and the U.S. to Europe lane slipping 0.5 points, to 57.7. However, despite the slips, both of these lanes still remain healthy, the companies said.
   The bumpiness in the overall logistics confidence index can best be seen in how the ocean sub-index has performed, Ti and Stifel said. It has declined since October. For February, all lanes except Europe to the United States fell. The six-month outlook dropped 2.5 points, to 60.2.
   “The ever perplexing problem of overcapacity remains a concern and particularly as additional larger vessels enter the market,” Ti and Stifel said. “In addition, port situations around the world – congestion, labor issues etc. – are muddying the situation further. Until these issues are resolved, an uncertain outlook will continue.”
   To take part in the March survey go to https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/StifelMarch.