The study, compiled by port staff, forecasts cargo volumes decline in 2008 and 2009, followed by a slight upward positive trend beginning in 2010.
Despite this, the five-year forecast said that by 2013, cargo volumes will still be only 1.85 million TEUs, or 10 percent below the port's peak year of 2.06 million TEUs handled in 2006. This is contrasted to the 51.6 percent increase the port experienced in the five years between 2001 and 2006.
The study cites both a general shift in Asian container market share from the U.S. West Coast ports to East Coast and Canadian ports and the deteriorating world economic condition as the primary reasons for the projected declines.
Despite the gloomy forecasts, the Tacoma port is actually faring better than most U.S. West Coast ports.
The Tacoma port handled 1.41 million TEUs through September, down 2.3 percent over the first nine months of 2007. In September, the typical start of the peak shipping season, Tacoma officials report that cargo volumes were down 6.5 percent compared to Sept. 2007.
However, the Port of Seattle is off 11.2 percent for the year, Long Beach is down 10.5 percent, Los Angeles is down 4.8 percent and the Port of Oakland is off 4 percent.
This is also being reflected in the overall share of the transpacific container market handled by the U.S West Coast ports. In 2002, the U.S. West Coast ports handled just under 83 percent of all boxes moving into the nation. According to federal government numbers, this number dropped to 72.4 percent for the first half of 2008.
Brokerage Compliance Symposium
The day before F3. Every compliance issue you face - fraud exposure, carrier liability, FMCSA rules, cargo theft, insurance gaps - navigated by attorneys and operators defining best practices in a changing industry.
F3 Awards Dinner
The night before F3. FreightTech100 companies honored. FreightTech 25 and Shipper of Choice winners revealed live. Cocktail reception into dinner and live music - 300 industry leaders in one purpose-built room.
F3: Future of Freight Festival
Industry-defining keynotes, rapid-fire technology demos, and industry leaders networking in experiences across Chattanooga - plus the inaugural F3 Awards Dinner featuring the FreightTech and Shipper of Choice reveals.
The day before F3. Every compliance issue you face - fraud exposure, carrier liability, FMCSA rules, cargo theft, insurance gaps - navigated by attorneys and operators defining best practices in a changing industry.
The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register NowThe night before F3. FreightTech100 companies honored. FreightTech 25 and Shipper of Choice winners revealed live. Cocktail reception into dinner and live music - 300 industry leaders in one purpose-built room.
The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register NowIndustry-defining keynotes, rapid-fire technology demos, and industry leaders networking in experiences across Chattanooga - plus the inaugural F3 Awards Dinner featuring the FreightTech and Shipper of Choice reveals.
The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register Now