Trans-Pacific spot rates reach new highs on resilient demand, port congestion

Ocean carriers are adding some trans-Pacific capacity in September, ahead of scheduled blank sailings around China’s Golden Week holiday period. The additions could provide limited near-term relief, but planned service withdrawals later in the month may again restrict available space, Levine said.

Some carriers are also considering low-water surcharges for Panama Canal transits. If implemented, those charges could place added upward pressure on rates to the U.S. East Coast, particularly for services that depend on the canal rather than routing through the Suez Canal or around Africa.

Typhoons deepen Far East disruption

A succession of typhoons since mid-July has created severe and continuing disruption at Chinese and regional Asian ports. The most recent storm forced closures at ports including Shanghai and Ningbo, adding to congestion that carriers have described as increasingly difficult to unwind.

The congestion has led some carriers to omit port calls, reroute cargo through transshipment hubs and adjust vessel rotations. Those measures can protect schedule integrity in the short term but also displace cargo and compound backlogs across the network, said Levine.

The resulting constraints on effective capacity have become a significant support for freight rates, even as demand conditions differ by trade lane.

Asia-Europe rates retreat but remain elevated

Asia-North Europe prices have declined by more than $1,000 per FEU from their July peak, while rates to the Mediterranean have fallen by more than $2,000 per FEU. The pullback reflects cooling demand on the Asia-Europe trade after the earlier summer surge.

Even so, both lanes remain roughly 40% to 70% above pre-peak May levels. Continued Asia port congestion, along with disruption at regional transshipment hubs, appears to be preventing a sharper correction in spot pricing.

Transatlantic market firms on capacity reductions

Freightos data shows trans-Atlantic container rates increased by about $400 per FEU over the past two weeks as carriers reduced available capacity. Carriers have announced additional September rate increases, though market observers remain skeptical that the full increases will hold in a trade where demand has generally been less supportive than on the trans-Pacific.

The direction of rates through the remainder of September will depend on whether Far East port congestion eases, the scale of Golden Week blank sailings and whether carriers can maintain capacity discipline as the traditional peak-shipping period progresses.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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