Truck tonnage in the United States improved 5.9 percent in September from a year earlier while increasing 1.6 percent from August, a sign that the traditional peak shipping season is beginning at a moderate level, according to the American Trucking Associations.
The industry group’s latest member survey puts the Truck Tonnage Index at 115.8, up from the August level of 114, adjusting for seasonal factors. Tonnage actually decreased 0.5 percent in August instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent
The unadjusted reading was 119.5, or 3.1 percent below the August level.
On a year-over-year basis, September’s seasonally adjusted tonnage was up 5.9 percent compared to a 4.9 percent increase in August from the same month in 2010. The August figure was revised downward from 5.2 percent in the advance survey.
“I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession because truck tonnage isn’t showing signs that we are in a recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement. “Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but not a recession.”
Costello also noted that the third quarter average exhibited signs of small gains for the broader economy, not contraction.
“In the third quarter, tonnage was up 0.4 percent from the second quarter. Prior to the two previous recessions truck tonnage was plummeting, but not this time,” he said.
Even a small increase in demand could put a strain on the truck market because fleet load factors are near 100 percent and there is little extra supply of trucks to handle the difference.
To read more about challenges shippers will face finding truck capacity see the American Shipper cover story (“Where did the trucks go?”) in the November issue.
Truck tonnage up 5.9 % in September.
