The freight market is seeing some interesting trends with mixed volumes and rising rates across modes, but small carriers are under immense pressure. We’re breaking down tender rejections, spot rates, and contract rates, highlighting why some carriers face layoffs and bankruptcies despite a recovering market. Plus, learn about the lowest truck count since early 2022.
The U.S. trucking market shed roughly 100,000 for-hire tractors over the past year — including about 51,000 in a single month this past summer — pushing the active tractor count to its lowest level since early 2022, FreightWaves data shows. The capacity exodus is the clearest signal yet that the prolonged freight recession has permanently squeezed out a meaningful share of the carrier base, particularly among small fleets.
The shrinkage is not evenly distributed. Fleets running between 20 and 1,000 trucks are actually up 12% over the last five years, but the edges of the industry are contracting sharply. Carriers with 1 to 6 trucks have erased their entire pandemic-era expansion, while fleets with more than 1,000 trucks are down about 9% as larger carriers deliberately park equipment to maximize utilization rather than grow headcount.
“It’s not necessarily that trucks are disappearing, it’s that they’re moving up,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “The 1 to 6 truck carriers have really erased the entire pandemic boom when so many trucks came in after that tight capacity market.”
The root cause, Van de Kamp said, is a lag effect: rates are rising but have not climbed fast enough to rescue carriers whose finances were battered during a prolonged period when rates ran well below costs. Diesel topping $6 a gallon adds further pressure for any operator not fully offsetting fuel costs through surcharges. Increased regulation and liability concerns are compounding the squeeze on small fleets, while large carriers face a persistent driver recruiting and retention challenge.
On the rate side, conditions are improving. The all-in spot rate (NTI USA) stood at $360 as of the broadcast date of Friday, November 13, up 2.86% month over month. Truckload contract rates (VCRPM1 linehaul) hit $2.88, a 25% jump year over year. Intermodal contract rates (IMCRPM1 USA) reached $1.78, up more than 6.5% year over year — still representing substantial savings versus truck for shippers willing to convert freight.
Overall tender rejection rates (STRI) are holding just below 13% at 12.87%, down roughly 1% month over month but supported by the tightening tractor supply. Flatbed and refrigerated tender rejections are both hovering around 20% to 21%, levels that have held since late September. Dry van rejections are softer at 10.4%. Volumes, measured by the STVI index, rose about 4% from October 1 (11,068) to the current reading of 11,405, even as the index slipped 3% to 4% week over week.
Van de Kamp flagged early signs of pre-peak tightening out of California and rising volumes in parts of Texas and the western Midwest, including Kansas. She advised shippers to budget for higher contract rates into 2027, pursue mode conversion to intermodal where feasible, and monitor reefer and Midwest demand trends. For carriers, she offered a pointed reminder: “Really understand your true costs when pricing out that freight.”
- For-hire tractor count has fallen roughly 100,000 in a year, hitting its lowest level since early 2022, with 51,000 tractors lost in a single summer month.
- Small carriers (1–6 trucks) have erased all pandemic-era growth while mid-size fleets (20–1,000 trucks) are up 12% over five years, reshaping industry structure.
- Truckload contract rates are up 25% year over year at $2.88 linehaul, but diesel above $6 a gallon and lagging rate recovery continue to push smaller carriers into failure.
This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.
