President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to immediately double tariffs on Mexican imports unless Mexico stops migrant caravans traveling toward the U.S. border, raising the prospect of another major disruption to North American trade and cross-border supply chains.
The warning, issued in a Truth Social post, comes as Washington and Mexico City negotiate trade issues and potential tariff reductions, including duties affecting Mexican steel and other manufactured products.
“Here we go again!” Trump wrote. “They will not be accepted!” Trump added. “MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.”
Trump said Mexican authorities, Texas’ newly elected governor and U.S. immigration enforcement agencies had been notified of his position.
The president did not specify which tariffs would be doubled, whether existing trade exemptions would remain in place or when any new duties would take effect.
Mexico remains the United States’ largest overall trading partner, with bilateral commerce totaling $96.34 billion in September. Laredo, Texas, the nation’s leading international trade gateway, handled $38.9 billion in two-way trade that month.
Sheinbaum pushes back on migrant caravan claims
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum disputed Trump’s characterization of the situation during her daily morning news conference Thursday, saying Mexico has prevented migrant caravans from reaching the U.S. border since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
“Since President Trump came into office, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border,” Sheinbaum said, according to a translation of her remarks.
Sheinbaum acknowledged that two migrant caravans are currently traveling through southern Mexico but said Mexican authorities are working to manage the groups.
Reuters reported that approximately 1,500 migrants were traveling north, while Spanish news agency EFE reported that the group initially included roughly 2,000 people.
Sheinbaum said Mexican immigration officials have experience managing such movements and emphasized that authorities are providing information and humanitarian assistance rather than allowing caravans to reach the U.S. border.
Existing tariffs already weigh on Mexico trade
Trump’s latest warning adds uncertainty to an already complicated tariff environment for companies conducting business between the U.S. and Mexico.
Current U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports generally include:
- 25% tariffs on most goods that do not qualify for preferential treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
- 0% tariffs on qualifying USMCA-compliant goods under the applicable general tariff framework.
- 25% tariffs on Mexican-made automobiles, subject to applicable adjustments and exemptions.
- 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products imported from Mexico, alongside additional sector-specific duties.
It remains unclear whether the threatened increase would affect non-USMCA goods, automotive products, steel and aluminum, or a broader range of Mexican imports.
The automotive, industrial equipment, electronics and metals sectors are especially dependent on cross-border supply chains, with components and finished products frequently transported by truck between factories, distribution centers and customers in both countries.
The tariff threat comes during a sensitive period for the U.S.-Mexico trade relations.
The two countries have been negotiating tariff reductions and broader trade arrangements following Trump’s decision in July not to extend the USMCA framework, according to Reuters.
Why it matters: Higher tariffs could raise costs for U.S. importers, disrupt manufacturing supply chains and affect freight volumes through major gateways such as Laredo.
