The Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress in last week’s U.S. midterm elections has introduced new uncertainty for trade and logistics, as container imports slow after an unusually long peak season.
The political shift leaves the Trump administration facing competing pressures, says rate platform and SONAR data contributor Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) in an update. Voter concerns over affordability could encourage restraint on tariffs and efforts to ease energy prices, including through de-escalation of the war in Iran. Conversely, a more difficult legislative environment could push the president toward trade and foreign policy as areas for executive action.
The incoming Democratic-controlled Congress will have greater oversight and appropriations powers when it takes office in January, potentially complicating negotiations with China even where the president retains authority to act.
For now, U.S.-China maritime policy continues to move toward de-escalation. Both countries have extended the suspension of reciprocal port fees until January 10, 2027, providing shipping lines and cargo owners with temporary relief from the punitive charges.
The extension forms part of a broader rollover of the bilateral trade truce, Freightos says, and creates additional room for negotiations ahead of an expected meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in China later this month. Whether that helps produce a longer-term agreement remains uncertain, particularly as technology, security and shipbuilding policy intersect with trade negotiations.
Import surge begins to cool
The policy uncertainty follows a prolonged U.S. ocean import season that began gathering momentum in May and continued through the summer.
According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. ports processed 2.37 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded imports in September. That was up 3.4% from August and 12.6% from a year earlier, making September the third-busiest month in the report’s history.
The NRF attributed the extended surge to renewed tariff pressures in the second quarter, which encouraged frontloading by importers, alongside consumer spending that remained resilient despite inflation.
The report projects October arrivals at 2.26 million TEUs, roughly 5% below September, and November at 2.05 million TEUs, approximately 14% below the peak. Its published full-year forecast puts imports at 26 million TEUs, up 2% from 2025.
Trans-Pacific ocean rates fell slightly this past week as carriers’ planned general rate increases failed to take hold. Nevertheless, rates remained around peak-season levels at $8,200 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) to the U.S. West Coast and $9,700 to the East Coast.
West Coast labor risk persists
Easing arrivals have not eliminated pressure on inland transport. Cargo at some West Coast ports has faced extended dwell for intermodal rail. That’s complicated efforts to move merchandise through supply chains even though most holiday goods have already reached the United States.
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26, which represents watchmen at several Los Angeles and Long Beach container terminals, agreed to a contract extension until November 20 while talks with employers of the Pacific Maritime Association continue.
A strike would threaten further disruption at a time when importers are still working through the inland movement of peak-season cargo.
On Asia-Europe routes, Freightos said rate hikes failed to gain traction. North Europe prices fell 5% last week to $3,400 per FEU, while Mediterranean rates declined 1% to $4,300. Despite those falls, rates remained 50% and 88% above year-earlier levels, respectively.
Why it matters: The election adds uncertainty to trade policy just as importers navigate high freight costs and a slowing but still strong shipping season.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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