Spot container freight rates from Asia to the United States have likely reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak, but shippers should expect elevated costs through the remainder of 2026, according to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand.
Market-average spot rates edged higher Oct. 1, reaching $8,346 per forty-foot equivalent unit to the U.S. West Coast and $11,523 per FEU to the East Coast. Those increases of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively, from Sept. 24 left rates more than four times their Feb. 28 pre-crisis levels.
“Spot rates from Far East to the U.S. ticked up again on October 1, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026,” Sand said.
Easing port congestion in Asia as typhoon season winds down is helping turn the market, he said. China’s Golden Week and national holidays are also reducing exports during the first week of October.
“Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year,” Sand said.
Xeneta expects a steeper decline on the Asia–U.S. East Coast trade than on the West Coast route, reflecting the East Coast’s higher starting point. East Coast rates stood $3,177 per FEU above West Coast rates Oct. 1, compared with a $772 premium before the Hormuz crisis.
Sand expects that gap to narrow as rates retreat through the rest of the year. Looking ahead three months, he forecast East Coast spot rates in a range of $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates around $4,500 to $5,500.
“That would be a sizable correction, but not a collapse,” he said.
The anticipated turn in U.S.-bound rates follows an earlier reversal on routes from the Far East to Europe. Sand said rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked much earlier and have been falling since the beginning of July.
Asia–North Europe spot rates declined 2.1% in the latest week to $3,726 per FEU, while Mediterranean rates fell 4.6% to $4,105. Despite those declines, rates remained 67.9% and 23.3% above their respective pre-crisis levels.
On the North Europe–U.S. East Coast trade, rates fell 2.2% week over week to $2,893 per FEU, still 95.9% above the Feb. 28 baseline.
Sand cautioned that the outlook remains vulnerable.
“We can also not discount further major disruptions or geopolitic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again,” he said.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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