Despite new record, Port of LA chief warns of tariff-driven planning risk

Vietnam now port’s 2nd largest trading partner

Tariffs and trade shifts are shadowing record volume at the Port of Los Angeles. (Photo: Port of LA)

The Port of Los Angeles moved 1.42 million TEUs in September, its best single month ever and the highest monthly volume ever recorded by a port in the Western Hemisphere, Executive Director Gene Seroka said this week. He said lower tariff levels, resilient consumer demand, and cargo shifting away from constrained Panama Canal and Suez routes drove the surge.

Record quarter

September imports totaled 546,000 loaded TEUs, up 19% year over year and 26% above the port’s five-year average. Exports rose 10% to 126,000 loaded TEUs, while the port handled a record 371,000 empty containers as carriers repositioned equipment to Asia.

July through September was the port’s strongest quarter on record at nearly 3 million TEUs, and June through September moved nearly 4 million containers. Through September, 2026 volume stood at nearly 8.1 million TEUs, up about 3% from the same period in 2025.

Seroka said the port expects October volume of about 900,000 TEUs. He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo “roll pools” before China’s national holiday, and continued holiday-season replenishment as reasons volumes should remain elevated.

Trade and sourcing shifts

Seroka in a media briefing said Vietnam is now the port’s second-largest trading partner behind China, while Thailand has entered the port’s top five for the first time. Vietnam-origin volume through Los Angeles has quadrupled over the past decade, he said.

He said China’s share of port business has fallen from 60% to 40%, but added that diversification has been slower than many importers would like. Harvard Business School Professor Willy Shih, the briefing’s guest, said companies are increasingly “optimizing for options” rather than lowest cost, because frequent policy changes make long-term commitments difficult.

Shih said apparent shifts away from China often reflect changes in final assembly rather than a true reduction in upstream dependence, since Vietnam and Mexico still rely heavily on Chinese components. Building comparable supplier networks in Mexico could take about a decade, he said.

Tariffs and outlook

Seroka said tariffs remain a central source of uncertainty, with importers making rapid decisions based on cost, demand, and policy deadlines. He said purchase orders in Asia remain solid, but November and December are difficult to forecast.

He also said ocean carriers and shippers are shifting more cargo to Los Angeles from Panama Canal routings because of drought-related constraints and higher fuel costs tied to Middle East conflict. Shorter, faster transits have become more valuable, he said.

On operations, Seroka said the port is generally flowing smoothly, with truck turns healthy and large vessels turning in about four days. But he flagged rail dwell times as an area requiring close monitoring as the port moves holiday cargo inland.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Stuart Chirls

Stuart Chirls is a journalist who has covered the full breadth of railroads, intermodal, container shipping, ports, supply chain and logistics for Railway Age, the Journal of Commerce and IANA. He has also staffed at S&P, McGraw-Hill, United Business Media, Advance Media, Tribune Co., The New York Times Co., and worked in supply chain with BASF, the world's largest chemical producer. Reach him at stuartchirls@firecrown.com.