No signs of truckload capacity recovering

By the spring of 2021, carriers were accepting more than 10% more loads, even with rejection rates still elevated. That market was certainly tighter than today’s. Even so, most would expect accepted volumes to have improved by now after months of elevated rates.

A supply-led cycle

The two cycles differ in several ways. The biggest difference is that the COVID cycle was driven more by rising demand than by falling supply. Tender volumes rose nearly 50% year over year from September 2019 to September 2020, and accepted volumes rose 20%. That surge quickly used up all the slack in what had been an oversupplied market.

The current cycle seemed to appear almost out of nowhere. It first showed up during the 2025 holiday season, when rejection rates and spot rates ran well above the previous three years. Many still questioned it, because trucking demand was actually weaker.

Winter Storm Fern in late January was the second catalyst. It pushed tender rejections and spot rates higher, and neither has meaningfully retreated since. Again, demand wasn’t the driver; limited capacity was.

Barriers to entry

The other major difference from the last inflationary cycle is that barriers to entry are much higher now. English language proficiency enforcement, stricter rules on non-domiciled CDLs and tougher immigration policies are keeping a large pool of potential drivers out of the industry.

The Montgomery v. Caribe ruling has an indirect effect on drivers, because brokers are now less likely to use carriers with poor safety records. As of this past summer, close to 2% of carriers with substandard safety scores had been removed from service, according to GenLogs. 

Rising costs

Diesel prices have spiked at times, making it hard for smaller carriers to manage cash flow.

Retail diesel prices are up 73% year over year. Dry van spot rates are up a still-impressive 43%, but they haven’t kept pace with fuel over the past few months. That gap squeezes carrier profitability, a pressure that was largely missing in the COVID era, when diesel prices actually fell in 2020.

Carriers that made it through the difficult stretch from mid-2022 to late last year are hesitant to invest in growth. Borrowing costs are much higher, and the low-cost government lending that helped carriers during COVID isn’t available. Supply always moves more slowly than demand, and it now faces more headwinds than in any recent cycle. Even with economic concerns, transportation procurement teams should prepare for a market that stays tighter for longer, into 2027.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.

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