Carriers are rejecting loads at a pace not seen in years, with little to no post-Thanksgiving reprieve. Is this yet another sign that capacity is finally reaching a tipping point?

Truckload spot rates have seen sharp, intermittent spikes this year, though none have lasted. These sharper swings may signal what’s coming next year.

Import demand continues to weaken, and while it is not a purely positive sign for transportation markets, it is not the most dire either.

Truckload rates have increased on a main transcontinental artery, showing that the value of truckload service has grown even though there is less demand for it.

Shippers are signaling a return to just-in-time shipping in reducing the inventory level buffers that they were building. This could pull some freight back into the truckload market.

Truckload contract rates have been remarkably stable over the past few years, but they are about to be tested over the next 12 months.

Truckload demand has collapsed, largely due to the loss of transcontinental freight to intermodal, but tender rejection and spot rates remain on par to slightly higher than last year, an indication that capacity is under far more pressure than demand.

Reports of immigration services targeting truck drivers caused a sharp spike in spot rates this past week, but as of late week tender rejections remained steady. Weak demand may be hiding growing fragility in the market.

The truckload contract market has fallen into stagnation after what looked like a transition late last year. What are the takeaways heading into the late year bid season?

Truckload carriers are not only hauling less freight, but moving it less distance. This has a compounding effect on keeping capacity loose as longer moves take up more capacity. If supply chain strategies normalize, it could have an impact on transportation markets.

Tariffs and a confounding trade policy have helped boost import demand in the first half, but that appears to be settling out to finish the year.

Chart of the Week:  Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures truckload demand, jumped 6.5% in the week and a half leading up to the Labor Day holiday weekend. While an increase is typical for this period, the scale of this rise is unusual. Let’s break down […]

Are declining import bookings a response to erratic trade policy, or are there broader economic signals to be gleaned?

Two of the three primary freight demand indicators have fallen into significant slides with only intermodal holding up, but for how long?

Just in case ordering has diminished the truckload market’s utility, specifically for cross continental freight, but that mechanism may come undone later in the year.

The widening gap between regional rejection rates underpins the growing fragility of the truckload market.

Container imports surged to a multi-year high in early July, driven by importers racing to recover lost time after tariff disruptions. While volumes spiked, this early peak doesn’t necessarily signal stronger demand.. As inventories grow more expensive to hold, maritime carriers are bracing for softer demand and more volatile shipping patterns in the months ahead.

Surface transportation rates took a hard right to start the year, thanks to shifting supply chain strategies and a slowing economy. Is this just a pause or is there further to fall?

Chart of the Week:  Carrier Details Net Revocations – USA SONAR: CDNR.USA Carrier Net Revocations—which measure how many truckload operators (businesses) are exiting the industry—have remained unseasonably elevated throughout the first half of the year. The current pace of exits is 16% higher than during the same period in 2024. Although new authority issuances have increased this […]

Container bookings data has rebounded back to previous year levels. Is a wave of freight coming to surface markets?

Uncertainty springing from erratic policy implementation in 2025 has made it challenging for businesses to make long-term commitments. That has kept the trucking sector from having its expected breakout moment this year.

Capacity is tighter in the Eastern half of the U.S. as carriers appear to be stuck on or targeting the West Coast freight.

Truckload capacity tightened noticeably during the annual CVSA International Roadcheck inspection period.

Shipping is ramping in parts of southern Asia as companies scramble to keep a buffer on inventories. How sustainable and effective is this strategy, and will it substantially mitigate the influence of prohibitive tariffs on China?

Southern California is at the epicenter of freight coming from China. Domestic demand patterns have not changed much since “Liberation Day,” but no one expects this to last.

Demand for loads moving less than 100 miles has been resistant to the intermodal shift. Its representation of consumer and manufacturing activity could be the key to staying on top of the economy amid extreme uncertainty.

During the COVID years, transportation providers were flooded with freight that needed to move yesterday. The current environment is flooded with freight that needs to move in a few weeks, maybe.

The flatbed sector was caught off guard by the North American tariff threat, but other factors have contributed to the recent disruption for the open-deck market.

Until recently, surface transportation demand in total was relatively flat with shippers utilizing the rails more frequently. Annual intermodal growth has stabilized, with truckload demand eroding beyond the modal shift offset.

The truckload market is tightening, but not evenly.

Truckload demand has stumbled over the winter, which has only helped keep capacity in a strong state of contraction – more than many realize.

Rejection rates that surged over 6% just before Christmas for loads out of Laredo, Texas, have unexpectedly remained elevated.

Rejection rate highs are getting higher, which means there is more potential for a significant softening that may feel like a full regression to some.

The spot-to-contract rate spread is just now in line with 2019 levels. How much longer until we see a stronger response?

There is more than meets the eye looking at the aggregate inventory level data. Retailers are shedding goods at a faster rate than their upstream counterparts, making the total look like a wash. This bodes well for 2025 from an economic perspective.

Hurricanes garner most of the attention, given their threat to life and property, but from an operational point of view, transportation managers and providers should probably increase their focus on winter weather.

There are some significant if subtle takeaways from the truckload markets’ shrinking average length of haul.

Supply chain and transportation managers are trying their best to mitigate their exposure to what will inevitably be a more challenging environment in 2025.

Shippers are giving longer notice for contracted truckload carriers to pick up their freight. What does this mean?

Import demand has increased over the past two years as companies have largely corrected inventories and navigated treacherous waters in the maritime industry.

There is nuance in this freight market flip. Why is this transitioning truckload market unlike any other?

Rising reefer tender rejection rates suggest the refrigerated truckload market is facing a tighter transportation procurement environment.

Could intermodal be capping the truckload market’s potential breakout?

Spot and tender rejection rates point to a strong tightening in the national truckload market. Is this the end of the freight market recession?

Truckload contract rates are starting to move higher in an environment where they have every reason to continue to fall.

Hurricane Milton was the third large disruptor to transportation markets in three weeks. What happens next?

Nationwide tender rejections are already above 5%.

Many of the signs of the end to the freight recession have faded, at least in the short run. A strike and the aftermath of a major hurricane are looming disruptors but probably not enough to sustainably shift the market. But the data still points to the end of this historically loose environment.

Intermodal providers are taking share with grace, but is it counterproductive to pricing gains?

The truckload market appears to be increasingly stable through a period when it normally isn’t. While the immediate future appears uneventful, the holiday shipping season is anything but certain.

Empty containers could be a strong transportation demand signal for September, but the market appears ready to handle it, for now.

The lack of volatility in produce-hauling rates out of California this summer supports the idea that the refrigerated market has more than seasonal pressure pushing rates higher.

Inventory pull-forward has been the driving theory behind container import growth, but data suggests that may not be as true as people think. What are the implications to domestic transportation markets?

Why are truckload spot and contract rates moving in opposite directions, and what does that mean for the future?

What should we make of an extraordinary example of history repeating itself?

The international shipping market has once again destabilized, with no real signs of relief.

The Southeast’s capacity issues do not appear to be originating from increasing demand, at least not from the region itself.

Maritime import demand for the U.S. is as strong as it has ever been, second only to the pandemic boom. What does this mean for the upcoming peak season, and how does it affect domestic transportation?

The freight market has not turned strongly yet, but some historical patterns may help map when it will.

The wide range of spot and contract rates being offered may help trigger a strong market shift later in the year.

Mother’s Day tightness has returned to the Florida refrigerated freight markets, but this year is different.

Demand pattern shifts are invisible in an oversupplied freight market, which may lead to problems once supply-and-demand conditions become more balanced.

The refrigerated truckload market has fallen back in alignment with the broader market this spring, but that doesn’t mean it will stay there.

Operating cost inflation is largely hidden, but fuel costs help explain why the domestic truckload market is headed for a turn.

Heavy truck orders are not an indicator of for-hire truckload market health and haven’t been since the pandemic ended.

Whether it is nearshoring, tariff bypasses or something else entirely, the Southern border is becoming increasingly important for domestic transportation.

Pricing trends and rejection rates are signaling a market shift is approaching. What should market participants do?

Inventory and procurement teams have earned their salaries over the past five years. Are they entering an extended period of stability, or is this only a rare moment of reprieve.

Transportation providers should watch both coasts for increasing spring activity in March.

The current level of deterioration is historically fast, meaning the truckload market has the increasing potential to flip to a much tighter environment without much notice.

Spot rates were 22 cents higher from July 2020 to February of 2022 — the pandemic era.

Lagging effects of the pandemic are still making evaluating the economy a challenge.

The domestic truckload market gets rattled by a series of winter weather systems.

Flatbed and refrigerated truckload data suggests their markets may have floored for these two trailer types.

The conflict in the Middle East may have late-year implications for the domestic transportation market.

The data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.

Shippers are bucking history and giving carriers more time to pick up their freight in a relatively soft market. What could be causing this and will it stick?

Shippers are reverting to pre-pandemic shipping patterns, which may exacerbate the next freight market shift.

The Logistics Managers’ Index has done a great job of explaining freight market capacity shifts over the past several years. The last few months are painting a picture of a market that is racing toward a correction.

After a relatively easy year for shipping and rightsizing inventories, shippers may have set up a holiday season in which expedited shipments become more prevalent.

The overall freight transportation market may be soft but the natural imbalance in the flow of freight is still able to create pockets of tightness.

The return of intermodal shipping could accelerate truckload capacity’s exodus.

It may not seem or read like it, but the trucking market is slowly tightening. The question is how much time till it is noticeable?

Spot and contract rates have stabilized with an unnaturally large gap between them. Is this sustainable or just a pause before the fall?

Sharply increasing fuel costs may exacerbate the carrier exodus this winter.

Removing future threats to demand, the refrigerated truckload sector supports the thesis that the truckload market has hit a floor.

FreightWaves latest SONAR data addition suggests a wave of truckload capacity exits is coming this winter.

National truckload tender rejections topped 4% for the first time since the holiday season last year. Is this a sign that the trucking market is turning the corner?

As companies are shifting their sourcing and logistics networks, it is changing the way transportation providers will have to manage their own businesses.

Transportation providers are going to have to maintain an aggressive posture when competing for business during the upcoming bid season.

An unseasonable upward trend in truckload tender volumes is giving domestic transportation providers the potential inflection point they have waiting for.

The less-than-truckload sector has been disrupted by a very public dispute between Yellow and the Teamsters. Rates have already seemingly responded and may continue to see support.

In a market where capacity is abundant, it is difficult to identify underlying shifts in demand.

There are some positive signs that the freight market has cleared most of the post-pandemic rubble, but full recovery is still a ways off.

If the spread between contract and spot rates narrows, capacity will become increasingly inconsistent in the second half of the year.

Underlying shifts in domestic shipping are showing up in the spot market.

There has definitely been a sustainable shift in how freight is distributed domestically.

The jury is still out on whether truckload demand has hit the floor.

Companies are still trying to get their margins back to pre-pandemic levels with price increases on finished goods. This will continue to put freight demand at risk in the second half of the year.

Flatbed capacity tends to be as erratic as its demand, making it harder to secure in general.