Maritime rates back on the rise

Maritime carriers typically institute general rate increases (GRIs) around the first and fifteenth of certain months, when conditions are expected to change or have already changed. Not all of these increases succeed, as shippers pull back on their ordering when rates rise — an effect that can be observed after the July 1 increase.

Super El Nino strikes the Pacific

Weather has also been cited as a factor disrupting port activity in southern China since July. The eastern Pacific is currently in a strong, or “super,” El Niño cycle, which typically leads to a more active tropical storm season in the western Pacific. So far this year there have been 16 named storms, making it the most active season by this point since 1971. Typhoons Noul and Dolphin both made landfall in mainland China over the past month, with the ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen all reporting congestion as carriers skipped calls.

Dolphin was the third tropical storm to hit China’s east coast in a five-week period, leading to 2.4 million TEUs being stranded and further exacerbating port congestion.

El Niño is a recurring weather pattern characterized by substantial warming of the eastern Pacific, which can lead to more frequent and increasingly intense tropical weather.

An additional effect of this year’s El Niño is cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the other side of the globe. This typically means less tropical activity, but also less rainfall throughout the Caribbean and Central America. That, in turn, is affecting the Panama Canal, which is once again experiencing drought-like conditions. The Panama Canal Authority just issued draft restrictions for cargo vessels effective into September, limiting how deep — and therefore how heavily loaded — vessels can be when transiting the canal.

This does not appear to be driving rates higher at this point, but it’s worth watching. The National Retail Federation recently revised its outlook, now expecting import demand to stay elevated through September rather than dropping off sharply after an early July peak, citing continued strength in orders and relatively low inventory levels among its members.

Elongated peak or just a plateau?

Customs data shows imports began clearing ports earlier than usual, in April and May, with a more even, extended cadence heading into August. This elongated — and perhaps misnamed — peak season looks vastly different from the one seen in 2025, when erratic tariff implementation wreaked havoc on international shipping. The steadier ordering cadence should make it easier for carriers to manage capacity compared with last season. 

Looking ahead, import demand is expected to ease overall, but booking data with lead times of more than 14 days suggests there could be another surge in the coming weeks — though nothing like what was seen earlier this year.

Also worth noting: ocean rejections are trending lower, but port-pair delays reported by Project44 are on the rise — somewhat conflicting signals.

The explanation for the recent rate volatility is complex, but most of the leading narratives don’t add up to a near-tripling of costs. Demand has been remarkably stable, and little has changed in terms of routing. Competition is limited, with 10 carriers controlling 90% of capacity. Rates aren’t a pure signal of demand, and they may not be the best indicator of supply in this market either. 

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