Asia-US container rates soar past $11,000, near pandemic records

The Far East-U.S. East Coast trade appears the likelier candidate to set a new all-time rate record, Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said.

The current East Coast spot rate is just 11.2% below its record of $12,683 per FEU, established Jan. 1, 2022, amid the supply-chain disruption of the Covid-19 era. The Far East-U.S. West Coast rate remains 17.9% below its $9,699-per-FEU peak, set Feb. 1, 2022.

“Spot rates from Far East to U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast are up 324% and 325% respectively since pre-Hormuz crisis at the end of February,” Sand said. “That leaves freight rates on these critical trades just 18% and 11% short of the all-time high set during the Covid-19 disruption.”

Rising bunker costs could further increase carrier fuel surcharges and push rates higher, he said, making a breach of pandemic records possible.

“If a freight rate record is broken, it is most likely to occur on the trade into U.S. East Coast,” Sand said. “But even if we do not see a new all-time high, the fact we are even discussing the possibility demonstrates how sensitive critical ocean container shipping trades are to geopolitical forces and how a regional conflict in the Middle East can have major implications at a global level.”

Capacity increases ahead of potential turn

Carriers are adding space from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast as demand and pricing remain strong, according to Xeneta. Offered capacity on that route in September is 6% to 7% above August levels.

Sand said carriers are moving to take advantage of the current pricing environment before market conditions potentially begin to change within the next two to three weeks.

“Carriers are seizing the opportunity while the market is hot,” he said. “Adding capacity into U.S. East Coast ahead of what could be a turn in the market” may help carriers capture elevated revenue while rates remain near historical highs.

That capacity response could eventually restrain the rapid escalation in spot pricing, particularly after the seasonal rush connected with China’s Golden Week holiday period.

Another rate push expected before Golden Week

Xeneta expects a further attempt by carriers to lift spot rates in early October as shippers accelerate exports from Asia before factory shutdowns and reduced production during Golden Week.

“We should expect one more freight rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of the Golden Week shutdown,” Sand said. “Before rates start to soften, or at least the pace of growth will slow.”

The expected post-Golden Week slowdown would not necessarily mean rates fall immediately. Rather, it could mark an end to the sharp upward trajectory that has characterized the market since late February.

Europe trades also rise sharply

The disruption has extended beyond US import trades, although the magnitude of increases has varied considerably by route.

(Chart: Xeneta)

The Far East-North Europe trade rose nearly 85% from pre-crisis levels to $4,103 per FEU, while the Far East-Mediterranean route increased 33.2% to $4,434 per FEU. North Europe-U.S. East Coast spot rates more than doubled, reaching $2,956 per FEU.

The gap between U.S. and European price escalation shows that price pressure is concentrated on Asia-U.S. container trades, particularly services moving through or affected by the Middle East disruption and the changing economics of vessel deployment, fuel costs and available capacity.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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