Miinor change in truck job numbers, bigger shift in warehouses

That isn’t the case for warehouse workers. That number declined by 9,500 jobs to 1,834,600 jobs. 

While the one-month decline was large, it wasn’t even the biggest in the last year. Declines of 16,000 jobs and 13,500 jobs were reported for September and October 2025, respectively. The end result is that warehouse jobs are down 34,700 jobs since July 2025, a drop of 1.8%.

To grow or not to grow

Mazan Danaf, the principal economist at Uber Freight, said carriers are “actively seeking to expand fleets to capitalize on rising spot rates and strengthening demand,” though he added in an email to FreightWaves that it was a challenge to do so “despite a restrictive regulatory environment.”

Danaf also added that some of the subsector data in the jobs report was positive, “with long-distance truckload employment growing for four consecutive months through June.”

But a different view came from David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics. In an email to FreightWaves, he said the fact that employment is holding relatively steady even as rates are rising “highlights carrier priorities for replacing aging equipment and focusing on necessary driver wage increases, instead of additional growth at this point in the cycle.”

Danaf also took a long-term view:  truck transportation employment reported by the BLS is 3.2% below its 10-year average, “suggesting that a full capacity recovery remains a long-term prospect.”

Up and down couriers

One sector that did add a significant number of jobs was couriers. They were up to 1,098,00 jobs from 1,083,100 jobs. 

But as independent economist Aaron Terrazas pointed out, that looked good mostly because the BLS sharply revised downward its June figure, with the 1.083 million jobs now reported well under the original report of 1,097,200 jobs.

Terrazas also noted that not only were the July numbers for warehouse workers down, but they were revised downward for May and June as well. The end result is that while the July number of 1.834 million jobs is more than it was in the first three months of the year, “revisions have erased any sense of a summer rebound in warehousing employment,” Terrazas said.

Spencer didn’t see much of a landscape for big truck transportation gains going forward. “Capacity remains constrained as carriers struggle with high fuel prices and a shifting regulatory landscape,” he said. “Continued regulatory enforcement and the recent SCOTUS ruling on broker liability are the most recent examples of how the challenges continue to develop for carriers and drivers. Insurance costs and access, and safety ratings are two big issues that could further restrict capacity in the coming months.”

In other highlights from the report:

• Rail jobs were revised down from both May and June, and the July figure of 149,300 jobs was 400 jobs less than June. Although movement in number is generally small, the cumulative declines  have added up and rail jobs are now 5,100 jobs less than they were a year ago, a decline of 3.2%.
• Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory truck transportation employees edged up to $32.35 for June, which operates on a one-month lag. But it is still less than the April figure of $32.38.

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