Pricing Power Index

There are many variables converging that will keep upward pressure on spot rates and tender rejections for the coming weeks. Carriers will be able to squeeze extra cents per mile over the next couple of weeks. Assets will come back online sooner rather than later, but volumes are beginning to pick up both seasonally and due to a whipsaw effect from the storm.

We believe the winter storms tip the scales in carriers’ favor ever so slightly. Freight markets were already imbalanced with seemingly insatiable demand overwhelming already strained carriers, and it’s only February.

Spot rates move up for the first time in 5 weeks.

Without much volatility in volumes and rejections over the past three weeks, freight markets have seemingly found their groove. The tune is akin to Berlin techno. To some, its pace is smooth and machine like. To others, its pure chaos.

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 70 (Carriers) Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 65 (Carriers) Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 75 (Carriers) The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for […]

We may be seeing signs of a traditional January lull, but at a much higher level than years past. On a rejection-adjusted basis, tender volumes are running up 23% yoy versus 20% last week. Tender rejections continue to decline modestly, but carriers are still rejecting more than 1-in-5 contracted tenders. Stimulus can only carry the freight markets so long. Fortunately, the industrial economy is revving up and retailers have significant restocking ahead.

The Outbound Tender Reject Index has declined substantially since the beginning of the year. This shouldn’t be seen as a sign of a material capacity loosening, rather an effect of the ongoing rebid season pushing contract rates higher.

The stage is set for a historically strong Q1 for freight with a slow vaccine rollout keeping a lid on services spending, and consumers are flush with recent stimulus as well as the hopes for more to come. The freight bull market rages on to start 2021.

There is a strong pipeline of West Coast imports that should feed those markets well into Q1, but the retail portions will be less time-sensitive post-Christmas. The one factor that may be suppressing volumes in the holiday season is retailers’ decision to slow the velocity of their sales in the face of low inventory levels.

In the heat of peak holiday season, our thesis is largely the same: relatively tight capacity, strong volumes and positive cyclicality. The low inventory-to-sales ratio, strong consumer sentiment and spending, lack of service-based spending options and acceleration of e-commerce growth all bolster our belief.

Both truckload tenders and tender rejections rose this week. If spot rates are to continue the succinct but lagging dance with tender rejections, we should see spot rates inflate over the next two weeks. Also, with Thanksgiving just a week away, drivers will be seeking freight that drives them toward home, which typically pushes rejections and spot rates higher.

We expect strong holiday truckload and parcel demand
driven by a consumer spending portfolio that has been weighted heavily toward goods over services since the pandemic began. We believe that we are now in peak season and that shippers’ requests for trucking capacity will continue to rise.

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 80 (Carriers) Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 75 (Carriers) Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 65 (Carriers) The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for […]

Freight volumes and capacity remain historically strong for carriers even though OTVI and OTRI have fallen steadily throughout October.

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 75 (Carriers) Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 80 (Carriers) Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 75 (Carriers) The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for […]

Carriers lose marginal ground this week as tender volumes, tender rejections and spot rates slip. Carriers remain in an advantageous position heading into the holiday season.

We have officially moved back into “broken record” territory that we have not seen since February. While volumes are flowing at record levels and capacity is as tight as it’s ever been, there is little volatility at the moment.

If you had told carriers they would see $3 a mile at any point during a global event like this, I believe many would have questioned your sanity. Yet, here we are with the Truckstop.com national spot rate average sitting at $2.93 per mile on Oct. 1.

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 80 (Carriers) Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 85 (Carriers) Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 80 (Carriers) The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for […]

We have gotten word that carriers are holding capacity until the end of the day before auctioning it to the highest bidder. Rates are nearing $3 per mile on a national level, and rates are already above that in 51 of 100 Truckstop.com lane pairings.