• DATVF.VWU
    1.570
    0.029
    1.9%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.584
    0.040
    2.6%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.864
    0.024
    2.9%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    0.948
    0.025
    2.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.030
    -0.025
    -1.2%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.110
    0.084
    8.2%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.507
    0.019
    1.3%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.642
    0.002
    0.1%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.224
    0.032
    2.7%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.932
    0.031
    1.6%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.434
    0.027
    1.9%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,884.260
    76.830
    0.8%
  • OTRI.USA
    6.160
    0.460
    8.1%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,876.200
    74.110
    0.8%
  • TLT.USA
    2.570
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    150.000
    0.000
    0%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.570
    0.029
    1.9%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.584
    0.040
    2.6%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.864
    0.024
    2.9%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    0.948
    0.025
    2.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.030
    -0.025
    -1.2%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.110
    0.084
    8.2%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.507
    0.019
    1.3%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.642
    0.002
    0.1%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.224
    0.032
    2.7%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.932
    0.031
    1.6%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.434
    0.027
    1.9%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,884.260
    76.830
    0.8%
  • OTRI.USA
    6.160
    0.460
    8.1%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,876.200
    74.110
    0.8%
  • TLT.USA
    2.570
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    150.000
    0.000
    0%
TruckingTruckload

Freight volumes go negative for first time since July as tough comps reassert

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) fell by 2.21% year-over-year this week, and now sit well off the year-to-date high of 6.78% from early October. Volumes have been in a consistent downtrend for the last several weeks. Most importantly, this week’s volumes negative results break a nearly three-month “winning streak” of positive volumes dating back to late July, when OTVI first crossed over to positive on July 24. 

Nationally, outbound tender volumes fell 2.21% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes are tracking down 3.85%, while week-over-week volumes are down 2.21%. As we enter the heart of peak season, it seems fair to now question if we are going to actually have a peak season at all. This is a stark reversal from a month ago when things were looking up, but this can be a volatile index so all is not lost yet.

On a market-by-market basis, seven of the 15 major markets FreightWaves tracks were positive on a week-over-week basis. On the upside, Fresno led the way, up 13.1%, followed by Indianapopolis, up 6.16% and Miami, up 5.70%. On the downside, the worst markets week-over-week included Ontario, California (down 21.73%), Los Angeles (down 14.67%) and Seattle (down 6.00%).

SONAR: OTVI.USA
SONAR: OTVIY.USA

National rejection rates fall this week

National tender rejections now sit at 5.08%. The tender rejection story has been much slower to develop, likely a reflection of stubbornly high capacity in the market. This week brought negative news on this front with rejections falling 38 basis points (bps) week-over-week. 

OTRI.USA briefly broke above the 6% level for the first time since March back on September 17, but has since taken a noticeable step back. On a week-over-week basis, OTRI.USA fell by 38 bps. Month-over-month, it is up 8 bps, while year-over-year it is down 775 bps compared to 12.83% at this time last year. On a trending basis, OTRI.USA looks okay but not great, having risen in nine out of the last 13 weeks with tender rejections rising off of the 3.75% bottom experienced in mid-August. National tender rejections are 2.36% below their 60-day moving average.

Year-over-year comparables for national rejection rates are still extraordinarily difficult due to the daunting 2018 numbers in which rejections never fell below double digits. As a result, on a year-over-year percentage basis, OTRI.USA is down 60%. As can be seen in the chart below, comparisons do not start to ease until the January and February timeframe in 2020.

SONAR: OTRI.USA

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Seth Holm

Seth Holm is a Senior Research Analyst for the Freight Intel Group at Freightwaves, which publishes proprietary research on all things transports and logistics. Most recently, Seth spent 9 years as an analyst covering consumer and technology, media and telecom (TMT) stocks at a hedge fund. Prior to that, he was as an analyst at a high net worth wealth advisory firm. Seth is a graduate of the University of Georgia with a major in Finance.

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