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  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.675
    -0.025
    -1.5%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.735
    -0.049
    -2.7%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.970
    0.028
    3%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.291
    0.011
    0.9%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    0.929
    0.009
    1%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    1.020
    0.031
    3.1%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    1.895
    -0.089
    -4.5%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.477
    -0.014
    -0.9%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.340
    -0.011
    -0.8%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.131
    0.020
    1.8%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.412
    -0.040
    -2.8%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,790.820
    -14.260
    -0.1%
  • OTRI.USA
    5.630
    0.020
    0.4%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,798.000
    -17.600
    -0.2%
  • TLT.USA
    2.650
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    140.000
    -16.000
    -10.3%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.675
    -0.025
    -1.5%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.735
    -0.049
    -2.7%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.970
    0.028
    3%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.291
    0.011
    0.9%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    0.929
    0.009
    1%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    1.020
    0.031
    3.1%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    1.895
    -0.089
    -4.5%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.477
    -0.014
    -0.9%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.340
    -0.011
    -0.8%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.131
    0.020
    1.8%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.412
    -0.040
    -2.8%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,790.820
    -14.260
    -0.1%
  • OTRI.USA
    5.630
    0.020
    0.4%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,798.000
    -17.600
    -0.2%
  • TLT.USA
    2.650
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    140.000
    -16.000
    -10.3%
TruckingTruckloadTruckload Carriers

Outbound tender volumes ease off peak season highs but are still up nicely

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) rose 11.77% week-over-week. Nationally, outbound tender volumes rose 6.77% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes are down 20.03%.

Volumes have predictably eased off of their peak season highs in typical seasonal fashion as January begins.

Thirteen of the 15 markets FreightWaves tracks were positive on a week-over-week basis. Markets with the largest gains in OTVI.USA were: Savannah, Georgia (45.55%); Fresno, California (24.60%); and Cleveland, Ohio (22.71%). The two markets that experienced week-over-week drops were Ontario (-2.83%) and Los Angeles, California (-1.19%). 

SONAR: OTVI.USA
SONAR: OTVIY.USA

National rejection rates pulling back but still double digits

The Outbound Tender Reject Index has slipped sequentially from its Christmas Day high of 14.25% to 10.05%. This total is still substantially higher than the 2019 average of 6.13%, but is likely to go lower as drivers get back on the road after the holidays. This last week was the first negative week-over-week change in rejections since early November. 

From Christmas 2018 to the first week of February 2019, the OTRI halved to less than 7%. It is likely the same happens this year, but possibly to a lesser degree. It is also possible that OTRI exhibits positive year-over-year growth for the first time in more than a year within the next few weeks. 

Despite the slip from the Christmas high, OTRI still remains above its 60-day moving average. We expect capacity to loosen up over the coming weeks and into the early summer. By Q3, we believe there are a few factors that may tighten capacity and put upward pressure on rates: first, the FMCSA Drug Clearinghouse will likely gut the industry of drivers; second, used truck prices have fallen through the floor – indiciating drivers may be looking for work elsewhere; and third, the new Class 8 truck orders were well below the replacement rate for all of 2019. 

SONAR: OTRI.USA

For more information on the FreightWaves Freight Intel Group, please contact Kevin Hill at khill@freightwaves.com, Seth Holm at sholm@freightwaves.com or Andrew Cox at acox@freightwaves.com.

Check out the newest episode of the Freight Intel Group’s podcast here .


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Seth Holm

Seth Holm is a Senior Research Analyst for the Freight Intel Group at Freightwaves, which publishes proprietary research on all things transports and logistics. Most recently, Seth spent 9 years as an analyst covering consumer and technology, media and telecom (TMT) stocks at a hedge fund. Prior to that, he was as an analyst at a high net worth wealth advisory firm. Seth is a graduate of the University of Georgia with a major in Finance.

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