The Freight Forecast Nobody Wants – But Everyone Needs

These aren’t startup execs guessing at trends. These are leaders of legacy carriers, speaking to rooms full of shippers and brokers. If they’re saying this out loud on a microphone, then you can bet they’ve been seeing it in their balance sheets for a while.

So what do you do with that kind of info when you’re a small fleet owner? You don’t panic. You prepare.

What That Quote Really Means for You

Let’s break it down.

When Matt Parry says “a bumpy next 12 to 18 months,” he’s not just talking about the big boys. He’s indirectly talking about you—the 1-to-10 truck carrier trying to stay alive while spot rates flirt with break-even and insurance goes up again.

When Sam Anderson says costs have risen more than 5% each year for the past three years, that’s the kind of math most folks don’t even want to run. But he’s right. And if you haven’t raised your internal cost-per-mile projections by at least 15% since 2022, you’re behind.

These aren’t just soundbites. These are sirens.

Let’s Talk Reality – What Makes the Next 18 Months “Bumpy”?

“Bumpy” doesn’t mean disaster. But it does mean unpredictable.

You might see freight volumes bounce in July, then drop in August. Rates might spike in certain lanes—only to get flooded by new trucks in 3 weeks. That’s the cycle we’re in.

What’s fueling the chaos:

• Excess capacity still hasn’t left the market.
  
• Shippers are tightening budgets.
  
• Interest rates and financing costs are still high.
  
• Used equipment values are dropping, but new truck payments are still heavy.
  

In short, everything costs more—but nobody’s paying more.

The Holiday Hope (But Don’t Bet the Farm On It)

Parry added that he’s optimistic about the 2025 holiday shipping season.

That’s great. But here’s the catch: holiday shipping has always been seasonal. If your business model relies on a good Christmas to survive the rest of the year, you’ve got a cash flow problem, not a freight problem.

Let that be the bonus—not the bailout.

The 5% Cost Rise Nobody’s Talking About

Sam Anderson said it clearly: operating costs have risen more than 5% each of the past three years. Think about that:

• If your average cost per mile was $1.65 in 2021, and you didn’t adjust for that 5% year-over-year, you’re now off by at least $0.26 per mile in 2025.
  

That’s nearly $2,600 on a 10,000-mile month.

If you’re wondering where the money went… it’s hiding in that math.

So what now?

If the next 12 to 18 months are going to be rough, you don’t just wait. You make decisions that tighten your grip on the business.

Here’s how you prepare without panicking:

1. Run Leaner Than Ever

Ask yourself:

• What am I paying for that I don’t need?
  
• Am I running trucks or routes that consistently underperform?
  
• Is my back office set up to actually catch leaks?
  

Leaner doesn’t mean smaller. It means smarter. If you can run three trucks profitably while one is bleeding, pause the one and protect the three.

2. Audit Your Pricing Logic

Don’t just chase loads because you’re desperate.

Know your:

• True cost per mile
  
• Minimum daily revenue needed
  
• Fuel-adjusted breakeven points
  

You can’t fix this market—but you can fix your margins.

3. Don’t Wait to Dump Problem Equipment

If you’ve got a truck with gremlins or a trailer that’s always in the shop, and it’s not making money—move it. Sell it. Park it. Reassign it. Whatever you have to do, don’t carry dead weight in a fragile market.

4. Triple Down on Maintenance

Downtime in this market isn’t an inconvenience—it’s a killer.

You don’t get to recover with a lucky spot market load like you could in 2021. Miss a week? You might miss your insurance payment.

Stay on top of:

• PMs
  
• Brake inspections
  
• Tire rotations
  
• Reefer hours
  
• DOT readiness
  

This is why we preach maintenance strategy so hard in our Masterclasses. It’s cheaper to fix it before it breaks.

5. Keep Communication Tight With Drivers

If you’ve got drivers, now is not the time to leave them in the dark.

• Keep them looped in on performance goals
  
• Explain the financial picture honestly
  
• Don’t let them chase bad freight because they’re worried about empty miles
  

A well-informed driver runs more like an operator. Use that to your advantage.

FAQ – Navigating the Next 18 Months

Q: Should I shut down my authority and lease on temporarily?
A: If you can’t afford the insurance, fuel advance risk, or dispatch manpower, leasing on might help you survive—but only if the numbers work. Don’t do it emotionally. Do it mathematically.

Q: I was thinking of adding another truck. Should I still do it?
A: Ask yourself: can the truck pay for itself in today’s market? If you’re betting on rates rising, press pause. If you’ve got a dedicated contract lined up, and it’s profitable—even now—then go with data, not emotion.

Q: Should I downsize now before it gets worse?
A: That’s a personal decision—but one you should make proactively, not reactively. Analyze each truck, each lane, and ask: is it helping or hurting the business?

Q: What if I’m already behind on payments?
A: Then communication is key. Talk to lenders. Talk to brokers. Delay growth plans. But do not ignore the math. Hope is not a strategy. Control what you can while you still can.

Final Word – Don’t Panic, but Don’t Pretend Either

This isn’t about fear—it’s about facts. The next 18 months are going to reward the disciplined, not just the determined. If your plan relies on the market fixing itself, that’s a dangerous bet.

But if your plan includes:

• Running lean
  
• Knowing your numbers
  
• Serving your best lanes
  
• Keeping your equipment tight
  
• Treating every truck like a profit center…
  

Then not only can you survive this—you’ll gain share.

Because the truth is, many folks won’t make it through this stretch. But the ones who do will come out stronger, leaner, and with less competition on the other side.

So yeah—it’s going to be bumpy.

But if you’ve been through rough roads before, you know how to hold the wheel.