North American commercial truck orders showed renewed momentum in January, with data pointing to solid year-over-year gains in Class 8 demand.
However, January’s rebound in truck orders reflects fleets finally executing delayed replacement plans rather than expanding capacity, according to reports from ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
“Some stabilization and improvement in the freight market since late 2025 also may have provided modest support at the margin, but fleet profitability and capital discipline remain binding constraints,” Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, sad in a statement.
Moyer added that purchasing behavior continues to be replacement-driven, with only modest early influence from EPA 2027 regulations.
FTR reported preliminary January Class 8 net orders of 32,500 units, down 24% month over month but up 27% year over year and well above the 10-year January average of 26,300 units.
January marked the second consecutive month of year-over-year growth — the first such stretch since spring 2024 — though cumulative Class 8 orders for the 2026 order season remain down 13% year over year, underscoring lingering softness in underlying freight demand.
ACT Research, meanwhile, estimated preliminary December North American Class 8 net orders at 30,800 units, also up 20% year over year, reflecting a modest rebound after a weak fall ordering season.
ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth said improved regulatory clarity around EPA’s 2027 emissions standards, firmer spot market conditions following winter weather disruptions, and clearer tariff-adjusted pricing helped jumpstart truck sales last month.
“After a weak October and November, a few things have happened that, in our thinking, have helped spur recent order activity,” Vieth said in a statement.
Medium-duty demand remained more subdued. ACT Research reported preliminary January Class 5-7 orders of 15,800 units, up 11% year over year, though analysts cautioned that the increase was inflated by an unusually weak comparison period in early 2025.
Both research firms warned that a durable recovery will require sustained year-over-year order growth alongside meaningful improvement in freight volumes, pricing and carrier profitability — conditions that remain uncertain amid elevated costs and ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
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