Truck orders rebound in January, but recovery remains uneven

FTR reported preliminary January Class 8 net orders of 32,500 units, down 24% month over month but up 27% year over year and well above the 10-year January average of 26,300 units. 

January marked the second consecutive month of year-over-year growth — the first such stretch since spring 2024 — though cumulative Class 8 orders for the 2026 order season remain down 13% year over year, underscoring lingering softness in underlying freight demand.

ACT Research, meanwhile, estimated preliminary December North American Class 8 net orders at 30,800 units, also up 20% year over year, reflecting a modest rebound after a weak fall ordering season.

ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth said improved regulatory clarity around EPA’s 2027 emissions standards, firmer spot market conditions following winter weather disruptions, and clearer tariff-adjusted pricing helped jumpstart truck sales last month.

“After a weak October and November, a few things have happened that, in our thinking, have helped spur recent order activity,” Vieth said in a statement.

Medium-duty demand remained more subdued. ACT Research reported preliminary January Class 5-7 orders of 15,800 units, up 11% year over year, though analysts cautioned that the increase was inflated by an unusually weak comparison period in early 2025. 

Both research firms warned that a durable recovery will require sustained year-over-year order growth alongside meaningful improvement in freight volumes, pricing and carrier profitability — conditions that remain uncertain amid elevated costs and ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.