Today’s Pickup: Iran’s oil buyers prepare for U.S. sanctions fallout

Good Day,

Starting this week U.S. sanctions against Tehran on sectors like automotive and aircraft are set to return following Trump’s decision in May to pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. Countries including China, India, and France, are considering creative measures to keep importing Iranian crude, according to the WSJ.

Oil companies have until November 4 to adjust to the returning U.S. ban on buying Iranian oil. “The three-month wind-down period is starting,” Dario Scaffardi, chief executive of Italian refiner Saras SpA—an Iranian oil buyer—told analysts last week. “So, we expect to see the effects sort of now.”

The sanctions come as Iran faces a collapsing currency and protests over living conditions. Petroleum is a main export, accounting for nearly a fifth of Iran’s gross domestic product. In recent months, U.S. officials have said they expect Iran’s oil exports to either disappear completely or to decline significantly.

Did you know?

There have been 33 fatal accidents involving transport trucks from January to mid-July this year, according to the latest Ontario Provincial Police statistics. That’s a 38% increase compared to the same period in 2017.

Quotable:

“If we all get replaced with raisins, we’re sunk.”

—Linda Prehn, a Wisconsin grower and president of the Cranberry Growers Cooperative

In other news:

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Baidu ready to beat Google if U.S. firm returns to China: CEO

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Alcoa requests exemption from aluminum tariff

Largest U.S. producer says it needs aluminum from Canada to fill can orders.

Freight train derailment in Pittsburgh sends rail cars crashing onto light-rail tracks below

A freight train derailed Sunday in Pittsburgh, sending rail cars down a hill and onto light-rail tracks below, disrupting transit service.

Final Thoughts:

What is interesting in this month’s results is that there was significant commentary among responses that suggests that tariffs are having a tangible effect on performance. Since the tariffs on steel and aluminum were announced in February, ISM respondents have expressed worries and uncertainty over trade policy and the potential implications that changes might have on business conditions. With each passing month, there has been a larger group of respondents that suggest that tariff impacts are moving beyond just worry and concern into actual bottom-line results. A key trend to watch is how this plays out into hard output and trade data in the second half of the year.

Hammer down!

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