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Airbus hikes forecast for future freighter demand

Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer discusses the company's Global Market Forecast for 2019-2038 with the press.

Airbus has elevated its 20-year demand forecast for all-cargo aircraft, saying the market will need 2,800 specialized units to handle growth in international trade and e-commerce, 400 more than it estimated last year. 

The European aircraft manufacturer predicts air cargo will double by 2038 based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%, up from last year’s CAGR estimate of 3.4%. Belly cargo is forecast to grow at a faster rate than main-deck freight – by 4.3% and 2.8% per year, respectively – corresponding to the faster growth of the passenger fleet. By 2038, 60% of freight will be carried by passenger aircraft, according to the new forecast.

Of the total dedicated freighters in service by then, Airbus now estimates that 2,500 would be newbuilds and converted passenger planes, with 60% of those replacing existing aircraft and the remainder representing incremental growth. Conversions would account for most of the fleet activity, supplemented by 850 newly manufactured planes, Airbus said in its Sept. 18 report. A year ago, the company saw 800 newbuild freighters on the horizon.

Most newbuild freighters – about 500 – are forecast to be in the mid-size freighter category, where aircraft payload ranges from 40 to 80 tons. Another 356 newbuild aircraft will be needed in the large category with payloads above 80 tons. 


The airfreight market cooled off last year to about 4% growth and volumes have continued to slide throughout 2019. Nonetheless, trade is still strong enough to support existing capacity. Airbus said that as of mid-2019, storage levels for freighters were at a historic low of 6%. In 2009, amidst the Great Recession, nearly a quarter of the fleet was shut down. And only 30 aircraft were retired last year compared to the 10-year average of 108 aircraft per year.

The freighter fleet has grown for five consecutive years to an all-time high of 1,800 aircraft, an increase of 20% since the financial crisis. 

Airbus estimates that the overall fleet would more than double to 47,680 aircraft in 20 years. The fleet size is nearly the same as predicted last year, but Airbus adjusted the expected airline demand based on new growth and replacement aircraft. It now estimates that 25,000 planes will handle new business, while 14,210 newbuilds will be replacements. That compares to 26,540 for growth reasons and 10,850 replacement aircraft in last year’s forecast. The balance of the fleet will be planes operating today that will still be in service.

In its biennial forecast last year, Boeing estimated that air-cargo traffic would grow 4.2% per year and that the freighter fleet would grow from 1,870 to 3,260 aircraft.


The growth in air traffic and fleets will create a need for 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians, Airbus said. Last year, Boeing forecast that the industry would require 790,000 pilots, double the current number. Its estimate for technicians was similar to Airbus’.

Eric Kulisch

Eric is the Supply Chain and Air Cargo Editor at FreightWaves. An award-winning business journalist with extensive experience covering the logistics sector, Eric spent nearly two years as the Washington, D.C., correspondent for Automotive News, where he focused on regulatory and policy issues surrounding autonomous vehicles, mobility, fuel economy and safety. He has won two regional Gold Medals and a Silver Medal from the American Society of Business Publication Editors for government and trade coverage, and news analysis. He was voted best for feature writing and commentary in the Trade/Newsletter category by the D.C. Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists. He won Environmental Journalist of the Year from the Seahorse Freight Association in 2014 and was the group's 2013 Supply Chain Journalist of the Year. In December 2022, he was voted runner up for Air Cargo Journalist by the Seahorse Freight Association. As associate editor at American Shipper Magazine for more than a decade, he wrote about trade, freight transportation and supply chains. Eric is based in Portland, Oregon. He can be reached for comments and tips at [email protected]