The maritime shipping analyst is now predicting container volumes at ports around the world will grow 4.6 percent in 2017, up from a previous prediction of 2-3 percent annual growth.
A strong first quarter at major container ports across the globe has maritime shipping analyst Alphaliner to significantly revise upward its global port throughput projections for the year, the company said in its latest weekly analytical report.
Earlier forecasts of only 2-3 percent container growth have been replaced by a new full year global throughput prediction of 4.6 percent. This is due to Q1 throughput growing by an estimated 5.8 percent combined at the 150 ports across the globe that were surveyed.
“A key driver of the higher than expected growth in the first quarter was the strong showing in Chinese ports (including Hong Kong) as well as North European and North American ports. Growth in both regions exceeded six percent year-on-year,” Alphaliner said.
And should growth continue to outperform expectations, that projection could possibly be again revised upward from 4.6 percent in the future.
“If the current strong momentum is maintained in the coming months, the full-year figure may be adjusted further upwards and could surpass the 5.1 percent volume increase recorded in 2014,” Alphaliner wrote in its report.
The higher full year forecast for 2017 could also mean growth in surpass global throughput containership capacity for the second straight year, which could help reduce surplus capacity that had been in existence the previous eight years.
“Despite the positive demand data, the supply overhang will still take a while to clear,” the firm said. “Latest data from Alphaliner shows that the active fleet has grown by 918,000 TEUs year-on-year to reach 19.93 million TEU as at mid-May, for an increase of 4.8 percent compared to the same period last year.”
Much of the increase, according to Alphaliner, came from a reduction in the idle fleet from a high of 1.59 million TEUs at the end of October 2016 to the current half a million TEUs. The idle capacity now stands at 2.5 percent of the total fleet, which is less than a third of 2016’s high of 7.8 percent.
Alphaliner raises global port throughput projection
