Analysts say transpacific rates dropping
Several analysts at a conference on transpacific shipping said freight rate decreases expected by the industry for some time are finally coming to fruition.
Paul Svindland, director of transportation and logistics for ICG Commerce, said that in a survey of shippers (many of whom have already locked in contracts with carriers), rates have fallen 6 to 12 percent.
It’s what many analysts predict will be the norm when rate negotiations begin in May.
Mark Page, a research director with Drewry Shipping Consultants, said he’s forecasting an 8.75 percent reduction in transpacific rates, primarily stoked by overcapacity due to an influx of new vessels coming online this year and next.
“The management of capacity is very big this year,” he said. “We’re predicting a 12 percent increase in transpacific capacity — even though the order book has more capacity coming online — because of the large number of vessels moving in and out of the trade. But if that cascading doesn’t happen, that 12 percent can become considerably higher, and we’re talking about moving around more than 200 ships, even though the net gain is only 34.”
