Forecast: October retail containers up 2.6%

   Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 2.6 percent in October over the same month last year and should reach its highest level of the year as retailers stock up for the holiday season, said the monthly Global Port Tracker report released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
   The report estimated September volumes were 1.37 million TEUs, up 2.7 percent from September 2010.
   “October is the historic peak of the shipping cycle each year, and retailers are bringing merchandise into the country on their usual schedule and at normal levels again instead of being forced to move cargo early,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
   NRF said inbound container volumes at the 10 ports tracked were lower this summer because in 2010 “fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual.”
   It said the 10 ports handled 1.32 million TEUs in August, 7 percent fewer than in August 2010. Year-over-year declines were also seen in June, down 5 percent, and July, down 4 percent.
   Port Tracker counts only the number of cargo containers imported, not the value of their contents, so cargo volume does not directly correlate with retail sales. Actual retail sales were up during the summer. NRF is forecasting 2.8 percent growth in holiday sales this November and December over last year, for a total of $465.6 billion.
   For the months ahead, Port Tracker is forecasting imports of 1.28 million TEUs in November, up 4 percent from November 2010; and 1.18 million TEUs in December, up 2.7 percent.
  Next year, the forecast calls for 1.16 million TEUs in January 2012, down 3.6 percent from January 2011; 1.1 million TEUs for February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, down 3.8 percent.
  The 10 ports covered by the report are Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, and Houston.