Container shipping companies “are expected to face another difficult year in 2012 with weak demand growth in both the Europe and U.S. markets,” according to the shipping information service Alphaliner.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, Alphaliner said trade on the Far East to Europe headhaul lane “reached an estimated 2.8 percent in 2011 but is expected to weaken to 1.5 percent this year, in the light of a weaker economic outlook in the European economies.” It is forecasting 6.3 percent growth for the trade in 2013.
After a 0.8 percent drop in Far East-to-U.S. headhaul in 2011, Alphaliner forecasts growth of 4.6 percent in 2012 and 5.1 percent in 2013. It noted that initially carriers had expected volumes to grow last year by 7-8 percent.
“Meanwhile, the containership fleet is expected to grow by 8.3 percent in 2012, leading to an oversupply scenario that would result in further vessel layups,” Alphaliner said. The idle containership fleet could grow from 595,000 TEUs at the start of 2012 to reach 1 million TEUs at the end of year.
“Such an oversupply situation would weigh down on charter rates for containerships, with the 3,000-6,000 TEU range expected to be the most affected. Many ships in this size range are expected to be displaced by larger ships, with no ready market to fully absorb this redundant tonnage.”
The Hamburg Shipbrokers Association ConTex index, based on charter rates for six different size containerships ranging from 1,100 TEUs to 4,250 TEUs, was reported to be 401 today. Last spring it was over 700.
While freight rates have been strong the past three weeks, Alphaliner said “this surge is expected to peter out after the Chinese New Year.”
Forecaster says ‘another difficult year’ for liners
