Is Trucking Capacity Coming Back? Why New Capacity Isn’t Entering the 2026 Freight Market

Tender rejections rising in 2025–2026 while tractors in new for-hire fleets fall.

Has truckload freight volume increased?

Barely. Over the three years ending October 2026, the SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI) is up 9%, while STRI is up 268%. At their early-summer 2026 peak, rejections were up more than 350%.

If demand were driving the market, those two lines would move together. Instead, carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same volume. That gap normally closes as new trucks enter and rejections fall back. It hasn’t closed. The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) reaches the same conclusion, describing 2026’s rate gains as a supply-side recovery.

Truckload volume up 9% while tender rejections are up 268% over three years.

Why are trucking authorities rising if capacity isn’t?

Because an operating authority is permission to haul, not a truck. A one-truck owner-operator and a 5,000-truck fleet each count as one authority. From 2019 to 2022, total authorities rose 51% while for-hire tractors rose just 12%.

The 2026 jump is also largely administrative. Net authority additions topped 2,000 a week in late August and late September, the highest in five years. Over the same stretch, FMCSA’s new Motus registration system paused deactivations and cleared a backlog of applications and reinstatements. Net revocations turned negative for the first time since at least 2019, and estimated new authority grants ran about 17% below the first quarter.

Weekly net authority additions spike above 2,000 in late 2026.

What’s keeping new trucking capacity out of the market?

Three pressures are raising the cost of entry at the same time.

• A narrower pool of compliant drivers. As of January 2, 2026, 202,345 CDL and permit holders were in prohibited status in FMCSA’s Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse. A non-domiciled CDL rule effective March 16, 2026 could affect up to 194,000 drivers over time. English language proficiency enforcement now takes about 2,700 drivers out of service a month, according to SONAR data.
• Rising insurance costs. Liability and cargo premiums rose 3.9% in 2025 to about 10.6 cents a mile, even as crash rates fell, and kept climbing in early 2026, according to ATRI. For a small carrier, a lapsed policy means a revoked authority.
• Thin margins. Truckload operating margins were barely positive in 2025, which makes adding trucks hard to justify.

The largest carriers are feeling it too. In second-quarter 2026 results, Schneider called the market driver-constrained, and Knight-Swift and Werner said driver availability was limiting their fleets.

What should shippers expect over the next six months?

Expect the truckload market to stay tight through early 2027, with STRI well above the 4% to 6% range of 2023 through 2025. The fastest source of relief is parked trucks: ATRI found about 10% of carriers’ trucks sat without a driver in 2025. They return only if carriers can find compliant drivers to seat them.

The signals that will show the turn first:

• Tractor counts and new-fleet tractors rising for two or more consecutive months
• STRI falling while STVI holds steady
• First-time insurance filings, not authority counts, picking up

Frequently asked questions

Is trucking capacity growing in 2026? No. Measures of trucks actually running are falling: total for-hire tractors fell about 51,000 in August 2026, and new fleets reporting miles are at their lowest since early 2020. Only authority counts are rising.

What is a trucking operating authority? An operating authority, or MC number, is FMCSA’s permission for a company to haul regulated freight for hire across state lines. It says nothing about how many trucks the company runs or whether they are moving.

Why are tender rejections high if freight volume is flat? Because capacity has left the market. With fewer trucks and compliant drivers available, carriers reject more contracted loads even when volume barely changes.

What is the best indicator of real trucking capacity? Tractor counts, fleets reporting miles, and tender rejections. First-time insurance filings are a better gauge of new entry than authority or registration counts.

Why did net revocations turn negative in 2026? FMCSA’s Motus rollout paused USDOT deactivations and processed a backlog of reinstatements, so reinstatements outnumbered revocations. It was an administrative effect, not a wave of new carriers.

Read the full Sitrep

The Authority Illusion covers seven years of authority, tractor, insurance and registration data, a 2026 capacity scorecard, and the indicators shippers should watch instead. Read the full Sitrep inside FreightWaves Market Monitor or the SONAR platform.

For real-time tender rejections, volumes and carrier fleet data, subscribe to SONAR.

Sources: SONAR (STRI, STVI, TCFHN, TCFH, CDNCA, CDNR, ELPVOOS); ATRI, An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update; FMCSA Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse Monthly Report, December 2025; Transport Topics, Schneider expects supply reduction momentum through 2026; FMCSA Licensing & Insurance and Company Census data.