Executives from J.B. Hunt Transport Services said Tuesday that the freight industry is in the “early innings of supply correction,” however, it’s the supply side that might limit the recovery’s upside when demand ramps. Management noted growing labor pressures, pointing out that driver recruitment needs are at their highest level since 2022. However, the hardened driver market presents a demand tailwind for its less driver-intensive intermodal unit.
Driver recruitment is getting tougher
Authorities started clamping down on bad actors last year. The impacts of strict enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements and non-domiciled CDL restrictions were quickly amplified by crackdowns on ELD providers and driver schools.
However, the exodus began before that. Many drivers that ventured out under their own operating authorities left the industry after a prolonged period of poor economics. Higher fuel prices, which most small operators can’t recoup through fuel surcharges, are the latest headwind for this segment of the market.
The Supreme Court’s ruling widening broker liability exposure has added another bottleneck for driver hiring. It’s also driving up insurance costs—an additional impediment to entry.
These actions have certainly been a net positive for large carriers. The bottom layer of capacity, which is often reliant on cheap rates, is being removed.
Large fleets have reported significant improvements in equipment utilization and their contractual rate renewals are yielding low-double-digit increases. After several quarters of cutting truck counts to improve utilization, some public fleets are again looking to grow. But growth will be tested by a tighter driver market.
J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) has made significant additions to its driver recruiting teams in recent weeks, management said Tuesday at Deutsche Bank’s Chicago Industrials Summit. While wages are moving up in certain regions, the company possesses some recruiting advantages.
Management said the regulatory crackdown has drivers looking to latch on with financially stable carriers that have ample safety protocols in place. J.B. Hunt’s dedicated segment also maintains an advantage. The average length of haul was just 172 miles in the recent quarter, providing drivers with normal day-job hours.
J.B. Hunt’s financials started healing ahead of upcycle
While overall demand has room to improve, management expressed optimism about the company’s trajectory, noting that its financial performance has improved over the past year. The better results have been achieved even though its two largest segments—intermodal and dedicated—don’t immediately participate in truckload market inflections.
J.B. Hunt tightened the belt last year, ramping cost takeouts and AI-led lean initiatives. It has achieved an annual cost savings run rate of $135 million (on $956 million in last 12 months’ operating income). Four straight quarters of year-over-year margin improvement came without a material benefit from pricing. Intermodal pricing normal lags the TL market by two to three quarters. Multi-year dedicated contracts have annual cost-based price escalators that are slower to adjust when the market turns.
The company has also achieved record intermodal volumes across the network coming out of the downturn. Management said the current road-to-rail conversion opportunity is the best in a decade. Everything is in place—high fuel prices, high TL rates and very good rail service. A competitive driver market can also be a net tailwind for modal conversion, as drayage drivers are only required for a fraction of the total intermodal shipment distance.
Stacey Griffin, senior vice president of pricing for intermodal, said it’s “the summer of many minibids” as customers try to mitigate TL rate hikes.
Even with a “normal peak season” on the horizon, management said it will be tougher for shippers to sidestep volume surcharges this year. J.B. Hunt expects to begin closing the pricing gap between TL and intermodal. Sonar data shows the gap has widened through the summer, with intermodal currently 34% cheaper than TL, well past historical benchmarks—10% to 15% in the truck-competitive East and 25% in the West (transcontinental).
The company’s intermodal bid season starts in October, with 10% of annual contracts being repriced in the fourth quarter. The remainder are evenly split across the first, second and third quarters. Truckload rates are still climbing and just starting to bleed into carrier results, which likely leads to “more opportunity” for intermodal rate increases.
J.B. Hunt’s dedicated pipeline ended the second quarter at an all-time high.
It labeled the second quarter “the squeeze quarter” for the TL brokerage industry, as spot rates (purchased transportation costs) surged. Despite the pressure, J.B. Hunt’s brokerage unit returned to profitability for the first time in 14 quarters. Across the industry, brokerage margins likely improved in July (the second-weakest volume month of the year) as spot rates cooled while contract pricing continued to reset higher.
Why it matters? J.B. Hunt’s presentation highlights how structural supply-side constraints, rather than just shifting demand, are creating a long-term competitive advantage for large, financially stable carriers.
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