OECD predicts world trade rebound in 2004-2005

OECD predicts world trade rebound in 2004-2005    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast that the volume of world imports and exports will expand by 7.8 percent in 2004 and 9.1 percent in 2005, nearly twice as fast as they grew in the last two years.
   The OECD’s latest half-yearly economic outlook, published Wednesday (Nov. 26), said that world trade volume rose by just 3.4 percent in 2002 and 4 percent in 2003.
   “World trade is already beginning to pick up and is predicted to firm over the projection period,” the OECD said. However, the Paris-based organization also expects the U.S. current trade deficit to continue to widen, while the surpluses of Japan and the euro area will increase. The OECD cited a U.S. current account deficit of $481 billion in 2002, $549 billion in 2003, $576 billion in 2004 and $612 billion in 2005.
   The OECD also expects growing imports into certain Asian economies, and improved economic prospects in Latin America.
   “Growth in Brazil is projected to pick up from 0.5 percent in 2003 to 3 percent in 2004,” the OECD report said. “In Argentina, following a deep plunge, growth might approach 7 percent in 2003, but beyond the very near term growth prospects hinge on successful internal and external debts restructuring,” it added.