The risk for severe weather, including rotating thunderstorms that could spawn tornadoes, will continue this week.
Areas from Texas to the Southeast Coast will be under the gun at various times Wednesday through Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), part of the National Weather Service, has placed these regions in a “slight” chance of severe storms. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the worst case, this a level 2 risk, meaning severe weather like damaging winds and large hail will be scattered rather than widespread. However, these storms could still do a lot of damage where they do strike.
Also, isolated tornadoes could pop up in some spots. Each day, as storms develop upstream, the SPC may increase the risk level in some places.
The severe weather potential coincides with a seasonal rise in warmth and moisture over the South and Plains, two important factors necessary to spark convection that leads to showers and thunderstorms. The primary severe weather season in the South runs from March through May.
Wednesday
The primary threat area Wednesday is from central Florida to South Carolina. A cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms later in the day, with embedded severe storms possible from Orlando, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina. Orlando was under a tornado warning for a while Tuesday night, but a tornado had not been confirmed as of Wednesday morning. As this system moves toward the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night, the severe threat will fade, with pleasant conditions in the South on Thursday.
Thursday
A system coming from the Rockies has a good chance of producing severe storms Thursday in the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley from Dallas to New Orleans. Initially, storms may form as discrete supercells, which are individual rotating thunderstorms that can spin up tornadoes. Later in the day as a cold front approaches, a line of storms is more likely, which may contain severe winds, hail and isolated tornadoes.
Friday
The severe storm threat shifts southward Friday but still includes the New Orleans area. However, the main risk zone stretches into western Florida, southern Alabama and western Georgia. Similar to Thursday’s storms, Friday’s will probably start as discrete supercells early, followed by a line of thunderstorms later in the day.
Major lanes of concern
• Interstate 4 in Florida from Tampa to Daytona Beach.
• Interstate 10 from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to Jacksonville, Florida.
• Interstate 20 from Dallas to Jackson, Mississippi.
• Interstate 35 from Dallas to Oklahoma City.
• Interstate 55 from New Orleans to Jackson.
• Interstate 65 in Alabama from Mobile to Montgomery.
• Interstate 75 in Florida from Tampa to Lake City.
• Interstate 95 from Melbourne, Florida, to Savannah, Georgia.
Click here for more FreightWaves articles by Nick Austin.
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