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SONAR Sightings for Sept. 7: Rejections out of Nashville lowest since 2020, dragging rates down

The highlights from Wednesday’s SONAR reports are below. For more information on SONAR — the fastest freight-forecasting platform in the industry — or to request a demo, click here. Also, be sure to check out the latest SONAR update, TRAC — the freshest spot rate data in the industry.

Market watch

Nashville, Tennessee

The recent holiday makes volume levels difficult to measure, so we will be taking a closer look at rejection rates and how they affect spot rates in each market.

In Music City, rejection rates are taking a nosedive to hit their lowest levels since April 2020.

Rejection rates were at a 30-day high of 10%, but since Aug. 29 rejection rates leaving Nashville dropped 490 basis points to a paltry 5.6%. Carriers in Nashville are likely seeing better-paying opportunities for contracted freight, and this significant decrease in rejections is already putting downward pressure on spot rates.

Spot rates from Nashville to Baltimore are down 10 cents from the time rejection rates out of Nashville began to drop. Although the average rates in this lane are at $3.03 — 34 cents above the national average — if capacity continues to soften these rates will begin to drop lower.

Market Dashboard

Kansas City, Missouri

Capacity tightened in Kansas City over the Labor Day holiday, with drivers in the market appearing to be searching the spot market for better rates. In the past week, the Outbound Tender Reject Index is up almost 200 bps to 6.7%.

A tightening of capacity puts upward pressure on spot rates leaving the market. Rates from Kansas City to Dallas have been consistent right around their current value of $2.69 — equal to the national average — but if rejection rates continue to climb, these rates could go higher.

Market Dashboard

NTI as a point of reference

The National Truckload Index is a daily look at how spot rates in specific lanes hold up in comparison to the national average, giving carriers and brokers an idea of which lanes to gravitate toward or avoid.

NTI Daily

Corey Smith

Corey is a staff writer for FreightWaves with experience in air, intermodal and parcel operations, as well as LTL and full truckload transportation management. He is a graduate of the University of Memphis, majoring in supply chain management, and enjoys basketball, cinema and traveling.