The volume of Russian crude exports is growing and the price is rising, spurring the U.S. and its partners to begin sanctions enforcement.
Inflation and economic fallout from the war are curbing demand just as a tidal wave of new ship supply hits the water.
Diesel is an essential fuel for the global economy. The world’s second-largest seaborne supplier, Russia, just halted exports.
Looking ahead, Taiwanese ocean carrier Yang Ming said that “the overall momentum for economic recovery over the next two years still appears relatively weak.”
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The Wagner mutiny is drawing attention to what happens after the war in Ukraine ends. When it does, shipping will see major changes.
Older ships are being kept in service longer in pursuit of profits, heightening the risk of accidents and spills.
Europe faced a potentially disastrous energy shortage after war broke out. LNG shipping played a vital role in limiting the fallout.
The war has stoked fears of global shortfalls of wheat, corn and fertilizers, but the flexibility of shipping trades has limited the risk.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the temporary blockage of its Black Sea port have redirected the flow of grain from Ukraine.
Tanker capacity for diesel is already tight amid war fallout. With very few ships on order, future transport capacity could fall short.
Larger crude tankers are moving more U.S. exports on shorter voyages to Europe as long-haul volumes to China stagnate.
After a year of sanctions and “self sanctions,” shipping cargoes caught in the crossfire continue to find their way to buyers.
Sanctions have split the world’s tanker fleet in two. On one side, those that follow Western rules; on the other, those that don’t.
Russian crude restrictions are having the predicted effect on tanker trades, soaking up more vessel capacity as sailing distance lengthens.
Sanctions on Russian crude exports have yet to boost tanker rates. Some question whether sanctions on Russian diesel will either.
The predicted boost to tanker rates from Russian crude disruptions has yet to materialize. Instead, rates have declined.
Just as the pandemic wound down, another market-altering event for shipping — the Ukraine-Russia war — ramped up.
Even if no oil moves under price caps, Russian exports could face deep discounts and continue to flow via “shadow tankers.”
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