Russian crude restrictions are having the predicted effect on tanker trades, soaking up more vessel capacity as sailing distance lengthens.
Sanctions on Russian crude exports have yet to boost tanker rates. Some question whether sanctions on Russian diesel will either.
The predicted boost to tanker rates from Russian crude disruptions has yet to materialize. Instead, rates have declined.
Just as the pandemic wound down, another market-altering event for shipping — the Ukraine-Russia war — ramped up.
Even if no oil moves under price caps, Russian exports could face deep discounts and continue to flow via “shadow tankers.”
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The “shadow fleet” is not large enough to save Russian oil exports from Western sanctions, according to multiple analysts.
The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a letter of intent to facilitate private-sector investment in the war-torn country.
“Right now, shipping companies around the world are looking at this and scratching their heads,” says sanctions expert Bruce Paulsen.
If the U.S. curbed gasoline and diesel exports, tankers would sail longer distances to replace lost volumes — a plus for tanker earnings.
