Truckload rate growth could go negative in 2016

Truckload pricing grew just 0.5 percent year-over-year in February, causing analysts at Avondale Partners to adjust their pricing forecasts downward to a range between -1 percent and 2 percent for the remainder of the year.    Truckload rates increased just 0.5 percent in February 2016 compared to the previous year following year-over-year increases of 0.4 percent in January and 1.1 percent in December 2015, according to the latest Cass Truckload Linehaul Index.
   Rates have increased in each of the past 11 months, but pricing growth has steadily contracted over that time, from 5.1 percent year-over-year growth in March 2015 to 3.8 percent in April, 3.5 percent in May, 3.6 percent in July and June, 3.7 percent in August, 3.2 percent in September, 1.9 percent in October, and 1.6 percent in November.
   As a result, analysts at investment firm Avondale Partners have adjusted their 2016 pricing forecasts downward to a range between -1 percent and 2 percent growth for the remainder of the year as “demand continues to soften while truckload capacity has been further increasing.”
   Avondale also said “contract pricing, which represents more than 95% of publically-held carriers’ business, has experienced increases due to a drawn-out bid season last year; however, spot market pricing — which has historically led contract pricing — has fallen well into negative territory.”