Uber Freight sees U.S.–Mexico trade driving freight rebound into 2026

Mexico strengthens position as top U.S. trading partner

Uber Freight highlighted Mexico’s expanding role in North American supply chains, driven by nearshoring and reshoring activity across automotive, industrial machinery and advanced manufacturing.

Mexico increased its share of U.S. imports to 15.5%, up from 14.5% previously, cementing its position as the largest U.S. trading partner, according to the report. 

Foreign direct investment into Mexico reached $34.3 billion in the first half of 2025, up 10.2% year over year, with the U.S. remaining the country’s top investor.

Uber Freight said export growth from Mexico has been particularly strong in vehicles, auto parts, industrial machinery, furniture and medical instruments — categories that generate steady truckload and cross-border freight demand.

Despite ongoing U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper, Mexico has largely maintained export volumes, albeit at higher production costs, reinforcing its importance in North American manufacturing supply chains.

Related: Customs overhaul may reshape cross-border manufacturing, expert says

Border risks and regulatory headwinds remain

While the long-term outlook for U.S.–Mexico trade remains constructive, Uber Freight flagged several risks that could disrupt cross-border freight flows in 2026.

The report pointed to road blockades across Mexico’s Bajío region, led by labor groups such as the country’s National Union of Workers, that have disrupted more than 8,000 truckloads, causing delays and congestion on key Mexico-U.S. corridors. 

Security concerns, including cargo theft, continue to drive shipper investment in advanced tracking, geofencing and in-cab monitoring technologies.

On the regulatory front, Uber Freight noted that stricter U.S. enforcement of English-language proficiency and commercial driver licensing rules, combined with pauses in certain U.S. visa processing programs, could further tighten cross-border driver availability.

Industry groups in Mexico warn that a significant share of B-visa drivers may not meet evolving U.S. language standards, potentially exacerbating capacity constraints.

Related: Blockades choke Mexico’s border trade as farmers, truckers escalate unrest

Freight rates expected to rise as capacity tightens

Across the broader U.S. freight market, Uber Freight said capacity reductions — driven by weak tractor orders and ongoing fleet discipline — are likely to push rates higher in 2026.

Dry van spot rates rose 1.2% year over year in November, while route guide acceptance remained strong at 93%, signaling a balanced but tightening market. Uber Freight expects spot rates to soften seasonally in early 2026 before rising in the second half of the year as capacity exits accelerate.

If pending federal action on non-domiciled CDL holders moves forward, Uber Freight said the market could experience significant tightening, potentially leading to double-digit spot rate growth.

Outlook: cautious optimism for North American trade

Looking ahead, Uber Freight said the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement review, scheduled for July, will be a pivotal moment for North American trade. Automakers are already increasing local sourcing in Mexico to prepare for stricter rules of origin and closer scrutiny of Asian content.

Major global events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted in Mexico, could also introduce temporary logistics challenges across major metros such as Monterrey, Guadalajara and Mexico City.

Despite these risks, Uber Freight said the long-term trajectory for U.S.–Mexico freight remains positive, underpinned by nearshoring, resilient consumer demand and continued investment in North American manufacturing capacity.