Weak market or not, truck transportation jobs saw healthy jump in March

Since the start of 2023, the 5,100 jobs added in March was the second-highest monthly gain, behind only the 8,000 jobs added in September. But that gain came right after the big Yellow-driven fall in jobs in August, so the 8,000 new jobs then could be viewed as at least partially a snapback after the Yellow layoffs.

“The increase in March is somewhat baffling, but the steady growth over the last 2 quarters indicates that carriers and fleets are making investments in drivers ahead of a potential flip in trucking conditions this year,” David Spencer, the vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said in an email statement to FreightWaves. “Lower equipment prices, some relief at the pumps and a somewhat active spot market early in Q1 may be what is enabling fleets to feel comfortable with these additions.”

Spencer noted that International Roadcheck is about six weeks away. It will occur alongside what Spencer said will be the beginning of summer peak season, “and carriers are likely hoping this is when things turn.”

The March figures are for seasonally adjusted jobs, the category that most economists consider the most reliable indicator of employment levels. Not seasonally adjusted truck transportation jobs also rose, increasing to 1,532,200 from 1,526,100 in February, a number that was revised upward.

March’s report from the BLS reflected a continuation of the job purge going on at warehouses. March warehouse jobs were down 5,500, to 1,757,200, from February, though the February and January figures were revised upward.

But the net result of all the moves is that March’s total empoyment at warehouses is down by 62,300 seasonally adjusted jobs in the past year. The not seasonally adjusted total is down 57,900 jobs.

Shannon Gabriel, vice president of the Leadership Solutions Practice at TMB Consulting, noted that the logistics sector in general is going to be hit by cuts at UPS and FedEx, both of which have announced or are implementing layoffs.

She added that there is a dichotomy in the warehouse numbers: The overall levels are declining while Indeed has 105,000 active warehousing jobs listed, and some of them offer sign-on bonuses.

That is likely to result in long-term shifts, according to Gabriel.

“I expect that the market will start to stabilize due to the rise in automation,” she said. “Logistics companies are frustrated with the high turnover, rising labor costs and underqualified talent, and many will turn to automation to solve it — but we’re still a few years out from that.”

Other highlights from the report:

• The number of hours worked by nonsupervisory employees remains depressed. That data is on a one-month lag. It was 39.5 hours in February, up from 39.3 hours. But in BLS data going back to 2014,there have only been three months when the figure was below 40 hours: January and February of this year and April 2020 at the start of the pandemic. 

• Weekly hours for nonsupervisory personnel in warehousing, which also lag by a month, were below 40 hours for most of 2023, and that number isn’t rising. The total of 37.2 hours in February was the lowest since a string of numbers below 37 hours at the start of 2022 and 36.5 hours last April. It also was down a half-hour in February from the January total. 

• The 153,400 seasonally adjusted jobs reported in the rail sector were the highest since before the pandemic. The history of rail jobs in the past 10 years is that they were falling sharply from levels in excess of 200,000 jobs due to the implementation of precision railroading, got down to around 160,000 right before the pandemic, fell to a steady level around 146,000 to 148,000 jobs after that but finally started to move off that level in late 2022. But even that celebrated increase in rail employment doesn’t have a lot of rocket fuel behind it, and gains remain small steps. The March figure is up 100 jobs from the prior month.

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