Trans-Pacific ocean rates remain well above pre-peak levels, and carriers are seeking increases of $2,000–$3,000 per FEU for November despite signs that the prolonged peak season is ending.
Forwarders cited improving space availability and more consistent vessel schedules as reasons to doubt that the increases would stick, analyst and SONAR data contributor Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) said in an update.
The analyst pegged Asia–U.S. East Coast rates at about $9,900/FEU, down 6% from the previous week but still roughly $200 above their level two weeks earlier. West Coast rates remained near $8,300/FEU after climbing into that range in September.
A potential watchmen’s strike at Los Angeles and Long Beach adds another source of uncertainty.
The Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26 extended their agreement through 5 p.m. Pacific Time on November 4, postponing a possible November 1 walkout while negotiations continue with federal mediation. The watchmen’s previous contract expired in July 2025.
Sources told FreightWaves that negotiations are continuing as of Wednesday.
Local 26 represents approximately 250 workers who provide terminal security services. Despite its small membership, a strike could have a wider operational impact. According to the Pacific Maritime Association, the affected facilities handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo. Employers have also warned that other ILWU members could honor picket lines, potentially interrupting vessel, yard and gate operations.
Container shipping rates from Asia to Europe have risen over the past month despite expectations of weaker post-peak demand and a growing return to Red Sea routes.
Rates to Northern Europe have climbed 10% over the past month, while Mediterranean prices have gained 23%. The increases come as congestion and lingering cargo backlogs help support prices, and uncertainty as to whether demand will sustain another round of hikes.
Mediterranean rates rose 3% last week to $4,375 per FEU, while Northern Europe prices were broadly unchanged at $3,595/FEU.
Congestion at Northern European hubs and lingering backlogs in the Far East may be contributing to upward pressure. A coordinated labor action on Oct. 30 also threatened disruption across European and other ports. More than 25 unions organized strikes and demonstrations at 113 ports across 22 countries and territories, although the impact varied, with some locations holding demonstrations rather than stopping cargo operations.
The rate gains have coincided with an accelerating return to the shorter Suez Canal-Red Sea route. Premier Alliance is adding two Asia–Mediterranean services to its Suez network in November, following earlier decisions to restore other services through the Red Sea. The shift is beginning to release vessels previously needed to maintain longer, diverted sailings around Africa, although congestion continues to absorb capacity on Asia–Northern Europe services.
Carriers planned general rate increases, or GRIs, of $1,000–$1,500/FEU on Asia–Europe lanes at the start of November, according to the update, with further increases planned for mid-month. Daily rates were flat in the opening days of the week, leaving the success of those efforts uncertain.
But published reports found carriers were discounting early-November bookings even as they announced higher rates, with Linerlytica describing the November 1 Asia–Northern Europe increase as “effectively doomed.” Carriers are also seeking stronger spot prices during the annual contract tendering season, when those prices help guide negotiations.
The two major east–west trades have followed different paths. Asia–Europe prices fell by $2,000–$3,000/FEU between July and September, returning close to their mid-May, pre-peak baseline before recovering in October. Trans-Pacific prices, by contrast, remain about $5,500/FEU above their pre-peak levels, the analyst said.
That resilience, including after China’s Golden Week holiday, leaves a relatively short window for a substantial correction before demand is expected to strengthen ahead of Lunar New Year. A return to pre-peak trans-Pacific pricing before the next seasonal upswing therefore remains uncertain.
Why it matters: Importers face high shipping costs and uncertain delivery times despite cooling demand, complicating budgets and inventory planning. A port strike could add delays and further limit relief.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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