Are We in the Great Trucking Recession? A Look at the Numbers, the Pain, and What Comes Next

(Source: EIA.Gov. This diesel price chart from 2000–2016 reminds us of a major truth: operating costs in trucking don’t just come from rates. Fuel has always been the wildcard. In 2008, prices spiked over $4.75/gal—right before the market downturn. By 2016, they were back under $2.00. For owner-operators, fuel swings like this can be the difference between staying afloat or bleeding out.)

“You Feel It Before You Read It”

You don’t need a SONAR chart, Wall Street analyst, or FMCSA stat sheet to know that something’s been off. You feel it in your deadhead miles. You feel it when you sigh before grabbing another low paying load. You feel it in the way your truck payment hits differently when the “all I got in it” barely softens the blow.

And if you’ve been around long enough, this doesn’t just feel like a dip.

It feels like a reckoning.

But is it a true recession? The numbers say yes. History says it might be worse than we’ve seen in a long time. And if we don’t take a hard look at what got us here — the post-COVID surge, the flood of new authority holders, the influx of non-domiciled CDLs, tariff tension, and our own short memories — we might just ride this slump longer than we need to.

(Source: SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI.USA). This 5-year chart of the National Truckload Index (NTI) shows the rollercoaster of spot market rates—soaring to record highs in 2021 and early 2022 before plummeting into a prolonged decline. Today’s $2.27 average reflects a market still searching for equilibrium in the aftermath of pandemic-fueled overcapacity.)

Sign #1 – The Freight Market Has a Long Memory (Even if We Don’t)

Let’s rewind the clock to 2017–2018, before COVID, before PPE stockpiling, before $3.50/mile spot rates made it feel like the golden age of trucking.

In that pre-COVID window, trucking was already headed for a slowdown. Rates were softening, capacity was tightening, and diesel was climbing. Sound familiar? DAT’s analytics from that period painted a clear picture — 2018’s boom had created a bloated capacity bubble that was beginning to deflate. Carriers expanded too quickly. Too many trucks chased too few loads.

That’s how the cycle always starts.

Then came March 2020. Lockdowns hit. Retail slowed. But just when it looked like the wheels might stop turning completely, something wild happened — e-commerce exploded, PPE loads surged, and inventory restocking kicked into overdrive. It was the freight equivalent of shock paddles to a flatlined market.

By late 2020 and through 2021, we were in uncharted waters. Spot rates blew past $3.00/mile. New MC authorities were being issued at a record pace. Owner-ops were turning down contracts to chase the spot market — and for a while, who could blame them?

(Source: DAT Solutions. Before COVID sent rates skyrocketing, this chart from 2010 to 2017 shows how the spot market used to move—up and down with the seasons, but rarely above $2.00/mile. Dry van, reefer, and flatbed rates danced around breakeven territory for years. That’s the world many truckers were used to—tight margins, calculated runs, and no room for error. Today’s downturn isn’t new… it’s a return to the kind of freight cycles that were normal before the pandemic-era highs gave everyone a taste of rare air.)

Sign #2 – Too Much of a Good Thing Becomes a Problem

But what goes up too fast in trucking doesn’t float. It crashes.

That wave of capacity didn’t just include seasoned O/Os. Tens of thousands of new entrants flooded in, including non-domiciled CDL holders that many carriers brought on to save money or fill seats. According to FMCSA records and FreightWaves reporting, we’ve seen a significant spike in first-time motor carrier authorities and a massive influx of foreign-born CDL holders entering the market.

But more capacity doesn’t mean more freight.

And by mid-2022, that freight wave began to ebb. Inventory piled up. Retail cooled. And those sky-high spot rates started their nosedive.

According to SONAR’s National Truckload Index (NTI), rates dropped from well over $3.00/mile at the peak to under $2.30/mile by mid-2025. That’s nearly a 25% decline, wiping out all pandemic-era gains — while fuel and insurance costs stayed elevated.

(Source: SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index. (OTVI.USA). This five-year look at the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) tells the story loud and clear—freight demand has fallen off a cliff since the 2021 boom. Back then, tender volumes surged north of 15,000 as shippers scrambled to move product. Today, we’re hovering under 10,000. For truckers, that means fewer loads to chase, more competition per load, and longer waits between runs. If it feels like you’re working twice as hard for half the freight, this chart explains why.)

Sign #3 – What the Charts Are Screaming at Us

Let’s break down what the data shows:

Tender rejections (OTRI) have dipped to just over 5%, meaning carriers are accepting nearly every load offered — a classic oversupply signal.

The NTI has hovered at $2.27/mile, dangerously close to breakeven for many O/Os — especially if you’re leasing, running older equipment, or paying off a high-interest truck note.

Spot rates are now consistently below contract, and the Spot vs Contract Spread has shown negative — a recessionary trend we haven’t seen since 2019.

Pair that with rising truck repossessions, insurance hikes, and a jump in trucking bankruptcies (a 35% increase YoY in fleets shutting down), and you’ve got a perfect storm.

If it smells like a recession, runs like a recession, and bankrupts like a recession — guess what?

Sign #4 – Why This Time Really Might Be Different

You’ve heard this story before: freight cools, capacity shrinks, survivors get stronger. But this time, the playbook has a few new pages.

Tariffs Are Back in Play
The recent Trump-era tariffs on foreign goods have created ripples that haven’t fully hit inland lanes yet. Importers are delaying restocks, and container volumes at ports were up initially, but deceptive — much of it is front-loaded inventory rushing to beat tariff deadlines. That means a pop in drayage and short-haul but a vacuum in midwestern and eastern long-haul freight two weeks later.
The Influx of Non-Domiciled CDL Holders
We’re seeing a market shift where carriers, facing insurance pressure and driver churn, have leaned on foreign CDL holders, often with less oversight. FMCSA data confirms countless new CDLs issued to non-domiciled applicants between 2021–2024. Many entered fleets at scale — driving wages down and pushing seasoned drivers off profitable lanes.
Erosion of the Spot Market Safety Net
Back in 2019 or even 2015, if you lost a customer or a contract, you could hop on a load board and piece together a week. Not now. Spot market rates no longer offer shelter, and load-to-truck ratios have fallen by 30% YoY.

That means you can’t out-hustle this market like you used to. The game’s changed.

(Source: Equipment Finance News. Charge-offs in equipment financing—often a signal of financial strain—have been steadily climbing since mid-2022, peaking at 0.37% in June 2023. As more carriers walk away from truck notes or default on leases, this rising metric underscores just how deep the pain has spread in today’s freight recession.)

Sign #5 – Bankruptcies Are Quiet… But They’re Climbing

One of the clearest signs of a freight recession? Bankruptcies. And while it’s not as flashy as Celadon collapsing overnight, smaller fleets are dying off at a steady pace.

According to reporting:

Countless carriers have exited the market since Q1 2023.

Many were fleets with fewer than 5 trucks — the heart of the independent O/O community.

Equipment repossessions are up 40% year-over-year, especially for trucks purchased at 2021’s inflated prices.

This isn’t a tidal wave. It’s a slow bleed.

And for those still standing, it feels like you’re making less but working harder — because you are.

Sign #6 – What’s a Trucker Supposed to Do?

So what does this mean for you, the driver fueling up in Amarillo, staring at another sub-$2.00 offer?

It means this:

Margins matter more than mileage. If you don’t know your cost-per-mile and breakeven, you’re playing blindfolded.

The spot market isn’t your fallback anymore. Start prioritizing direct shipper relationships, regional freight, and lean into your network.

Don’t ignore the signs. If your maintenance bills are stacking, your insurance is up, and your revenue is shrinking, don’t just wait for it to “come back.” Look at consolidation, partnerships, or even temporary leasing under a stable carrier.

(Source: DAT Freight and Analytics, ACT Research. This chart shows the rollercoaster ride of spot market rates with fuel included over the last 15 years. The red line tells the real story—what an owner-operator actually earns per mile before expenses. During the COVID boom, spot + fuel topped $3.25/mile, a record high that drove massive growth and fleet expansion. But look closer at the recent decline—by early 2023, rates fell below $2.00/mile all-in, a level many carriers say doesn’t cover costs.)

Sign #7 – Is This the Worst It’s Been?

Let’s answer the question:

Is this the Great Trucking Recession?

If you define it by rate erosion, carrier exits, imbalance of supply/demand, and operational pain — it absolutely qualifies. This isn’t a moment. It’s a multi-year correction.

And when you add in:

The impact of tariffs

The disruption of regulatory enforcement (ELPs, Non-Domiciled CDLs)

The structural saturation of the market post-COVID

…it may actually be deeper than 2008, especially for the small carriers who don’t have megacarrier resources.

Final Word — This Is a Reset, Not the End

You’ve survived market swings before. But this one isn’t just about weathering a storm. It’s about rethinking how you operate.

The freight will return. Capacity will correct. But the ones who survive won’t be the ones hauling the most miles — they’ll be the ones running smart, lean, and relationship based when needed.

They’ll be the ones who built customer relationships when everyone else was chasing spot market loads. They’ll be the ones who adjusted instead of just enduring.

So if you’re hurting right now, just know this:

You’re not crazy. You’re not alone. And if we face this with clarity — hopefully — we’ll come out of it not just alive, but stronger.