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Outbound tender rejections continue to climb through Thanksgiving

Source: FreightWaves

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) fell by 11.89% week-over-week. Much of this drop can be attributed to the timing of Thanksgiving. Last year Thanksgiving fell on November 22, which has skewed year-over-year comparables for the past two weeks. 

Nationally, outbound tender volumes fell 4.73% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes were down 12.34%, as the Thanksgiving holiday has created tough weekly, monthly and yearly comparables for this week’s tendered load volume data. 

All 15 markets FreightWaves tracks were negative on a week-over-week basis. Markets with the smallest losses in OTVI.USA were, Houston, Texas (-2.34%), Memphis, Tennessee (-3.39%) and Laredo, Texas (-8.75%) The steepest week-over-week drops included Indianapolis, Indiana (-25.86%), Cleveland, Ohio (-23.83%) and Savannah, Georgia (-21.76%). 

SONAR: OTVI.USA (National outbound tender volumes in blue, 60-day moving average in red)
SONAR: OTVIY.USA (National outbound tender volumes year-over-year percentage change)

National rejection rates rise this week continue breaking out to the upside

This week’s run-up to Thanksgiving gave outbound tender rejections a lift, finishing up at 7.94%. This is 183 basis points (bps) above last week’s finish. 

OTRI.USA has now broken above the 6% level for two consecutive weeks. This is the first time outbound tender rejections have remained above 6% for consecutive weeks since March 2019. 

On a month-over-month basis, rejections are up 194 bps, while year-over-year it is down 546 bps compared to 13.4% at this time last year. On a trending basis, OTRI.USA continues to strengthen, having risen in 12 out of the last 15 weeks, with tender rejections rising off of the 3.75% bottom experienced in mid-August. National tender rejections have now moved comfortably above their 60-day moving average by 44.89%.

Year-over-year comparables for national rejection rates are still extraordinarily difficult due to the daunting 2018 numbers when rejections never fell below double digits. As a result, on a year-over-year percentage basis, OTRI.USA is down 45%. As can be seen in the chart below, comparisons do not start to ease until the January and February 2020 time frame.

SONAR: OTRI.USA (National outbound tender rejections in blue, 60-day moving average in red)

Kevin Hill

Kevin Hill is the executive publisher at FreightWaves, where he formerly served as director of editorial and research. Kevin is also the host of Put That Coffee Down, the popular freight sales podcast, a former freight broker and the founder of CarrierLists. Kevin holds an MBA from the University of Oklahoma.