• DATVF.VSU
    1.385
    0.016
    1.2%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    0.943
    -0.053
    -5.3%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.652
    0.027
    1.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.155
    0.031
    1.5%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    2.209
    0.102
    4.8%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.764
    0.049
    2.9%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.373
    0.067
    5.1%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.600
    0.030
    1.9%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    1.030
    -0.019
    -1.8%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.803
    0.030
    1.7%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.740
    0.050
    3%
  • ITVI.USA
    10,250.710
    -46.410
    -0.5%
  • OTRI.USA
    7.920
    -0.400
    -4.8%
  • OTVI.USA
    10,244.810
    -70.470
    -0.7%
  • TLT.USA
    2.620
    0.010
    0.4%
  • WAIT.USA
    158.000
    8.000
    5.3%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.385
    0.016
    1.2%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    0.943
    -0.053
    -5.3%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.652
    0.027
    1.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.155
    0.031
    1.5%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    2.209
    0.102
    4.8%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.764
    0.049
    2.9%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.373
    0.067
    5.1%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.600
    0.030
    1.9%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    1.030
    -0.019
    -1.8%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.803
    0.030
    1.7%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.740
    0.050
    3%
  • ITVI.USA
    10,250.710
    -46.410
    -0.5%
  • OTRI.USA
    7.920
    -0.400
    -4.8%
  • OTVI.USA
    10,244.810
    -70.470
    -0.7%
  • TLT.USA
    2.620
    0.010
    0.4%
  • WAIT.USA
    158.000
    8.000
    5.3%
BusinessEconomicsFinanceInsightsLogisticsNewsSONAR Market Update

Outbound tender rejections continue to climb through Thanksgiving

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) fell by 11.89% week-over-week. Much of this drop can be attributed to the timing of Thanksgiving. Last year Thanksgiving fell on November 22, which has skewed year-over-year comparables for the past two weeks. 

Nationally, outbound tender volumes fell 4.73% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes were down 12.34%, as the Thanksgiving holiday has created tough weekly, monthly and yearly comparables for this week’s tendered load volume data. 

All 15 markets FreightWaves tracks were negative on a week-over-week basis. Markets with the smallest losses in OTVI.USA were, Houston, Texas (-2.34%), Memphis, Tennessee (-3.39%) and Laredo, Texas (-8.75%) The steepest week-over-week drops included Indianapolis, Indiana (-25.86%), Cleveland, Ohio (-23.83%) and Savannah, Georgia (-21.76%). 

SONAR: OTVI.USA (National outbound tender volumes in blue, 60-day moving average in red)
SONAR: OTVIY.USA (National outbound tender volumes year-over-year percentage change)

National rejection rates rise this week continue breaking out to the upside

This week’s run-up to Thanksgiving gave outbound tender rejections a lift, finishing up at 7.94%. This is 183 basis points (bps) above last week’s finish. 

OTRI.USA has now broken above the 6% level for two consecutive weeks. This is the first time outbound tender rejections have remained above 6% for consecutive weeks since March 2019. 

On a month-over-month basis, rejections are up 194 bps, while year-over-year it is down 546 bps compared to 13.4% at this time last year. On a trending basis, OTRI.USA continues to strengthen, having risen in 12 out of the last 15 weeks, with tender rejections rising off of the 3.75% bottom experienced in mid-August. National tender rejections have now moved comfortably above their 60-day moving average by 44.89%.

Year-over-year comparables for national rejection rates are still extraordinarily difficult due to the daunting 2018 numbers when rejections never fell below double digits. As a result, on a year-over-year percentage basis, OTRI.USA is down 45%. As can be seen in the chart below, comparisons do not start to ease until the January and February 2020 time frame.

SONAR: OTRI.USA (National outbound tender rejections in blue, 60-day moving average in red)

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Kevin Hill

Kevin Hill leads the Freight Intel Group at FreightWaves, which publishes proprietary research on all things transport and logistics. Kevin, the founder of CarrierLists, is a former freight broker and holds an MBA from the University of Oklahoma.

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