• DATVF.VWU
    1.570
    0.029
    1.9%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.584
    0.040
    2.6%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.864
    0.024
    2.9%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
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    0.025
    2.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.030
    -0.025
    -1.2%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.110
    0.084
    8.2%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.507
    0.019
    1.3%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.642
    0.002
    0.1%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.224
    0.032
    2.7%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.932
    0.031
    1.6%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.434
    0.027
    1.9%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,884.260
    76.830
    0.8%
  • OTRI.USA
    6.160
    0.460
    8.1%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,876.200
    74.110
    0.8%
  • TLT.USA
    2.570
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    150.000
    0.000
    0%
  • DATVF.VWU
    1.570
    0.029
    1.9%
  • DATVF.LAXDAL
    1.584
    0.040
    2.6%
  • DATVF.DALLAX
    0.864
    0.024
    2.9%
  • DATVF.PHLCHI
    0.948
    0.025
    2.7%
  • DATVF.LAXSEA
    2.030
    -0.025
    -1.2%
  • DATVF.SEALAX
    1.110
    0.084
    8.2%
  • DATVF.VEU
    1.507
    0.019
    1.3%
  • DATVF.ATLPHL
    1.642
    0.002
    0.1%
  • DATVF.VSU
    1.224
    0.032
    2.7%
  • DATVF.CHIATL
    1.932
    0.031
    1.6%
  • DATVF.VNU
    1.434
    0.027
    1.9%
  • ITVI.USA
    9,884.260
    76.830
    0.8%
  • OTRI.USA
    6.160
    0.460
    8.1%
  • OTVI.USA
    9,876.200
    74.110
    0.8%
  • TLT.USA
    2.570
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    150.000
    0.000
    0%
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US tariffs take heavy toll on China (with video)

The full extent of the impact on Chinese exports from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is now becoming clear.

China’s export growth in greenback terms fell 3.2% year-on-year in September, according to customs data released Oct. 14., after also declining 1% compared to a year earlier in August.

Last month’s drop in China’s export growth was largely attributable to the mammoth decline in shipments to the U.S., which fell 21.9% year-over-year, and also receded from the 16.0% drop recorded in August.

This resulted in average Chinese export growth to the U.S. of negative 15.1% in Q3, a decline from negative 8.2% in Q2.

“After adjusting for Lunar New Year distortions, September export growth [to the U.S.] was the lowest single-month reading since January 1996, when the data series was first released by China customs,” noted Japanese financial services group Nomura.

“The big contraction in the growth of U.S.-bound exports was mainly due to existing higher U.S. tariffs on the $380 [billion U.S. tariff] list and an unfavorable base in September 2018, as Chinese exporters rushed to frontload their shipments to the U.S. ahead of scheduled tariff hikes on the $200 billion (tariff) list.”

Illustrating that there have been no winners in this trade war, although President Trump called for the repatriation of manufacturing from China, many producers are instead opting for low-cost options elsewhere in Asia to maintain profit levels.

China’s imports from the U.S. are also sluggish. Last month imports contracted 15.7% year-over-year after also dropping 22.3% in August, taking the quarterly average growth to minus 19.1% year-over-year in Q3 from minus 27.9% in Q2.

“As a result, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $25.9 billion in September from $27.0 billion in August,” said Nomura.

Nomura noted that China’s total export growth was 9.9% in 2018 and negative 0.1% in January-September 2019. This sudden slowdown of export growth “should bring down China’s gross domestic product by around 1.3 percentage point over January-September this year,” it concluded.

China’s export growth is expected to further slow in the coming months despite the current trade truce. “The truce between U.S. and China might boost sentiment, but we maintain our view that the worst is yet to come,” said the Nomura report.

More FreightWaves articles by Mike

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/author/mikeking


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Mike King

After a decade in Asia, Mike is now based in the U.K. Growing up in a prominent Liverpool trucking family, he could shrink wrap a pallet and load a 40ft container with a forklift before his teen years. More by accident than design, his career in journalism led him back to his origins. Some 20 years later and after multiple editorships, highlights include covering Asia for JOC, becoming one of the youngest ever magazine editors at Lloyd’s and running the news desk at IFW/Lloyd’s Loading List. Recent business journalism award wins include Seahorse Air Cargo Journalist of the Year in 2012, Supply Chain Journalist of Year in 2016 and News Journalist of the Year in 2013 and 2017. In 2018 he was named the International Road Transport Union Journalist of the Year. Mike also has a long history working with NGOs fighting deforestation and corruption in Indonesia, he runs a charity in Nepal and has spent a decade investigating corruption and human rights abuses on behalf of a leading commercial risk intelligence company. He loves Liverpool FC and is a regular participant in the World Bog Snorkeling Championships.

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