White Paper: State of the Industry – February 2026

The February 2026 “State of the Industry Report” — presented in affiliation with Ryder — shares an in-depth overview across the trucking, maritime and intermodal markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. The data contained within the report provides breakdowns of capacity, volumes and rates.

In this report, you will find: 

• Truckload tightness is supply-driven, not demand-driven.
  Spot rates and tender rejection rates remain elevated despite tender volumes running well below year-ago levels, pointing to a meaningful contraction in carrier supply.
• Post-holiday normalization is taking longer than usual.
  Rejection rates and spot rates have only modestly eased from mid-January peaks, suggesting capacity continues to exit the market even as seasonal demand fades.
• Truckload demand remains weak.
  Tender volumes reverted to a baseline roughly 6–7% lower year over year after the holidays, confirming that recent tightening is not supported by a broad demand recovery.
• Refrigerated markets experienced outsized seasonal volatility.
  Reefer rejection rates approached 20% around Christmas, with cold weather and protect-from-freeze demand driving sharper-than-normal seasonal tightening, especially in the Midwest.
• Contract rates are under pressure to move higher, but timing remains uncertain.
  While contract rates have not yet seen sustained increases, persistent spot strength and elevated volatility increase the likelihood of rate inflation later in 2026.
• The spot–contract rate spread collapsed rapidly.
  Aggregated spot rates briefly moved above contract rates around Christmas, marking the tightest relationship since early 2022 and underscoring how quickly market conditions can shift.
• Carrier exits are now visibly impacting service and pricing.
  Years of carrier attrition, exhausted balance sheets, and the end of pandemic-era financial buffers are translating into tighter capacity and weaker route-guide compliance.
• The LTL market remains uneven and selective.
  Pricing is stable in dense classes (70–85), rising in higher classes above 125, and compressing in heavier lower classes, with LTL likely to lag truckload tightening by several months.
• Intermodal demand and value remain strong.
  Domestic and international intermodal volumes have started 2026 well, supported by strong service, excess container availability, and a 20–30% rate advantage versus truckload in key lanes.
• Global trade and macro uncertainty continue to cap visibility.
  Weak imports, tariff uncertainty, vessel redeployments, and geopolitical risks are supporting near-term container ship rates but add volatility risks through 2026 despite structurally ample capacity.

Download the complimentary report today to access the full insights.