1989 to Now: Thom Albrecht on Freight’s Strange Cycle

Freight market outlook: Thom Albrecht says this is the most fascinating supply cycle he’s seen in his career. The Reliance Partners CRO breaks down why demand improved in June and July, why supply still drives the market, and what rail, chemicals, scrap and grain are signaling for trucking. If you’re trying to read where freight goes next, this is the operator-level takeaway. #FreightMarket #TruckingIndustry #RailFreight

The trucking freight cycle — already being driven primarily by supply constraints rather than demand — could last beyond the end of next year or into the first quarter of 2028 if regulatory enforcement stalls, and could extend significantly longer if pending rules are enacted, according to Thom Albrecht, Chief Revenue Officer of Reliance Partners, one of the largest insurance brokers focused exclusively on trucking.

Albrecht, who began his Wall Street career covering freight in 1989, identified five supply-side developments that have already reshaped carrier capacity: English language proficiency enforcement, action on non-domiciled drivers, elimination of self-certification at CDL institutions, the move away from self-certification for electronic logging devices, and legal fallout from the Montgomery Supreme Court decision — including what he called a recent large C.H. Robinson verdict. He told the show that demand, while not robust, has improved, noting that the Purchasing Managers Index survey of 18 industries showed only 4 reporting growth in September of last year, rising to 9 in January, 14 in June, and 15 in July.

“If all of the regulatory progress stopped with those 5 things and a lot of things that are being discussed don’t come to fruition, then the cycle will be over by the end of next year or Q1 of ’28. But if some of these other things are enacted, then next—” Albrecht said, before being cut off as the host noted the trajectory follows a normal cycle pattern.

A centerpiece of Albrecht’s outlook is the planned elimination of ELD self-certification. He said there are currently roughly 1,000 registered ELDs in the United States, compared with 41 in Canada, where a rigorous certification process checks more than 500 compliance points per device. He argued the U.S. market would consolidate dramatically — potentially to 20 or fewer certified providers — weeding out devices used to falsify records. He also called for stiffer fines on both drivers and motor carriers for English language proficiency violations, and suggested that freight itself could be seized by the government as an enforcement tool.

On new entrant reform, Albrecht advocated for a proposed rulemaking that would require prospective carriers to answer 100 or more questions covering maintenance, hours of service, and driver skills before receiving a DOT number. He also floated raising the cost of obtaining a new DOT number from roughly $300 today to between $5,000 and $10,000, saying that price signal alone would curtail the practice of operators cycling through registrations to evade enforcement. Last year, approximately 60,000 brand-new DOT numbers were issued.

The broader demand picture offers some support for carriers. Rail freight data cited during the discussion showed the freight index reached its second-highest level since 2008. Albrecht said he tracks chemicals as a proxy for future industrial activity and scrap metal for its flexibility as an industrial input, and that both commodity flows point toward gradual improvement in the manufacturing economy. He predicted a bumper corn crop this year, driven by heavy rainfall across the Midwest and Southeast, which would add to already strong grain export shipments moving by rail.

On the question of whether large shippers could lobby Washington to ease carrier regulations and relieve tightening capacity, Albrecht was skeptical. He noted that transportation costs rarely surface as a top priority for major retail and industrial CFOs, and that the current administration has shown little appetite for walking back enforcement actions driven by safety and immigration compliance — areas he described as more bipartisan than shipper-friendly. “Safety is paramount,” he said. “That was never deregulated.”

• Albrecht sees the freight cycle extending to end-2027 or Q1 2028 at minimum, with potential for a longer run if ELD, CDL, and new-entrant rules gain enforcement teeth.
• ELD consolidation could shrink the U.S. market from roughly 1,000 registered devices to 20 or fewer once self-certification is eliminated, mirroring Canada’s 500-point compliance standard.
• PMI data showed industries reporting growth rising from 4 out of 18 in September 2024 to 15 out of 18 in July, signaling broadening demand alongside the supply-driven recovery.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.