North American Rail Traffic JUMPS 4.9%!

North American rail traffic saw a significant increase this week, with total volume climbing 4.9% year-over-year. This positive trend was largely fueled by robust carload and intermodal growth in Canada, bolstered by a strong crop year. However, motor vehicle and parts shipments were a surprising outlier, plunging 13%. We also delve into the latest on the proposed UP/NS merger, including the STB’s

North American rail traffic rose 4.9% year over year in week 32, led by a surge in Canadian volume that the Association of American Railroads’ data showed cutting across both carload and intermodal segments, according to the AAR’s weekly traffic update. Carload volume across North America was up 4.7%, while intermodal climbed 5.1%.

Canada was the primary driver of the headline number, posting strong gains in both carload and intermodal freight — a combination that has been rare in recent reporting periods. CPKC was cited as a key contributor to that growth. Grain played a significant role, with the end of one crop year and the start of a new one following a bumper Canadian harvest boosting shipments.

In the U.S., Class I railroads posted more modest but still positive results. Carload volume was up 1% for the week, intermodal rose 2.7%, and total U.S. rail volume came in 2% above the same week in 2025. Eight of the 10 commodity groups tracked by the AAR finished in positive territory.

Among the three largest carload commodity groups, grain was the standout at plus 3.4%. Chemicals were essentially flat at up 0.4%, while coal continued its structural decline, falling 5.5% year over year. The sharpest negative reading of the week came from motor vehicles and parts, which dropped 13% — though the cause remains unclear, with affordability pressures, loan costs, and automaker incentive strategies all cited as possible factors.

“Carload volume in North America was up 4.7% compared to a year ago. Intermodal volume was up 5.1%. That gives us a total for North America of an increase year over year of 4.9% for week 32.”

On the merger front, the Surface Transportation Board adopted a formal review schedule for the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern combination, pushing a final decision well into the second half of 2027. Final briefs are due May 28, 2027, though the board has not yet set a date for the close of the record — a significant detail, since a decision must come within 90 days of that close. The STB’s order also directed UP and NS to produce all underlying data behind market share and traffic projections in their supplemental filing, after the railroads’ work papers indicated some data was not included as deemed irrelevant. “It’s basically a trust but verify outlook at the board,” said Bill Stephens.

Opposition to the merger remains broad. BNSF, CSX, CPKC, and shipper groups have all asked the STB to reject the application since UP and NS filed their supplemental materials on July 27. CN, which initially opposed the deal, withdrew its opposition after reaching a separate access agreement with Union Pacific. Nissan was noted as one large shipper that has publicly supported the merger, illustrating the ongoing effort by the merging railroads to build a coalition of customer and carrier backing ahead of any final ruling.

• North American rail volume jumped 4.9% in week 32, with intermodal up 5.1% and carloads up 4.7%, driven largely by Canadian growth tied to a bumper grain crop and CPKC gains.
• U.S. motor vehicle and parts carloads fell 13% for the week, the sharpest decline among all commodity groups, while coal continued its downward trend at -5.5%.
• The STB set a formal UP-NS merger review schedule, pushing a final decision to the second half of 2027, with final briefs due May 28, 2027, and ordered the railroads to disclose all underlying market share and traffic data.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.