Truckload Volumes Drop 15% — But Spot Rates Stay Hot

Truckload volumes dropped 15% after Labor Day, but spot rates are still elevated and tender rejections haven’t cracked. That’s the freight market story right now. In this SONAR update, we break down the post-holiday volume pullback, why reefer is still tighter than van, what rising diesel means for rates, and why intermodal contract pricing is starting to move. If you need the fast read on truckload, reefer, rail and ocean, this is it.

Truckload volumes fell nearly 15% on Wednesday, September 9, as the freight market pulled back from a pre-Labor Day surge, according to FreightWaves’ Sonar Truckload Volume Index (STVI). The drop reflects a familiar post-holiday pattern — minimal shipping over the weekend and on Monday pushed the 7-day rolling average lower — but the more significant story is that rates have not followed volumes down.

The National Truckload Index (NTI), FreightWaves’ spot rate benchmark, sat at $3.44 per mile, up about half a percent on the day and 47% higher year over year, said Julie Van de Kamp in a Wednesday Sonar market update. The daily spot rate index (NTID) spiked to $3.57 on September 6 before pulling back roughly 8% to $3.40 on September 8 — still well above the $2.29 per mile recorded a year ago.

Tender rejections also eased slightly, with the Sonar Tender Rejection Index (STRI) for the U.S. falling about 3.2% to just above 14%. The decline offers carriers modest relief but remains elevated compared to the same period last year. Equipment-type data shows van rejections at 12.35%, flatbed at just under 19%, and reefer rejections holding above 20% — nearly 10 percentage points above van — signaling continued tightness in temperature-controlled capacity.

“Regardless of both rejections and volumes falling a bit, rates have continued to remain elevated,” Van de Kamp said. “Our NTI, which is our Spot Rate Index, is at $3.44 a mile, which is up about another half percent today and is 47% higher year over year.”

Fuel costs are adding pressure across modes. Diesel at the Department of Energy’s national average price stood at $5.60 per gallon, up nearly 10% over the prior week. Van contract linehaul rates (VCRPM1) held steady at $2.72 per mile, while the reefer spot rate climbed to $3.84 per mile all-in. Intermodal contract rates jumped 3.5% to $1.80 per mile — the largest single-day mover in the dataset — reflecting ongoing mode conversion from over-the-road as shippers seek cost relief.

On the macro side, the Logistics Managers’ Index showed inventory levels at 52.8 — above the 50-point expansion threshold but down about 4% year over year. Transportation utilization came in at 70.6, and the transportation prices subindex registered 90, approximately 4% above the prior month, underscoring persistently high rate conditions. Ocean freight added another layer of complexity, with the Inbound Ocean Trade Index (IOTI) up 1.3% to $1,942 and transpacific spot rates near $9,500, driven by Middle East port congestion and rising fuel costs. Inbound ocean shipments rose 1.5%.

Van de Kamp flagged several longer-term variables to monitor, including ongoing tariff negotiations with Canada, the European Union, and Mexico, as well as potential supply disruptions tied to Russian refinery capacity and its effect on global diesel availability. “The main story is volumes have seemed to decline a bit, rejections have remained relatively steady, but spot rates have remained really strong,” she said, noting that a clearer post-Labor Day volume picture should emerge by early the following week.

• Truckload Volume Index dropped nearly 15% on September 9, but the National Truckload Index spot rate held at $3.44/mile — up 47% year over year.
• Reefer tender rejections remained above 20%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than van rejections at 12.35%, signaling persistent tightness in temperature-controlled capacity.
• Diesel hit $5.60/gallon nationally, up nearly 10% week over week, while intermodal contract rates jumped 3.5% to $1.80/mile as mode conversion from over-the-road continues.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.