Diesel vs Spot Rates: Why Carriers Are Better Off Than Last Year

Truckload rejections just climbed back to 14.5%, and that’s the clearest sign yet that peak season may finally be showing up. In this SONAR update, the FreightWaves Today team breaks down tender rejections, truckload volumes, diesel prices and linehaul rates to answer the question every carrier and broker is asking: is this market tightening, or just teasing a turn? Key takeaway: capacity is still leaving the market, diesel is hammering cash flow, and rates are healthier than last year — but not healthy enough for carriers to relax yet.

Truckload carriers are outpacing last year on a net revenue basis despite record diesel prices, according to FreightWaves SONAR data reviewed on FreightWaves Today. Spot rates have climbed from roughly $2.40 per mile to $3.42 per mile year over year — a gain of about 90 cents — while the Net Truck Index of Linehaul (NTIL), which strips out diesel costs, shows carriers are still running approximately $0.70 per mile ahead of where they were in 2024.

The finding matters because the freight market spent much of 2023 and 2024 in a prolonged downturn, and carriers, brokers, and shippers are closely watching whether the current cycle has turned. The data suggest the market is on firmer footing even as cost pressures mount.

“The market is absolutely healthier. Rates are significantly higher,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “I think the question is, have rates risen enough for carriers to be comfortable? And the answer is no, not yet.”

“I know I’m going to get some hate on this because I have — carriers are doing better this year despite higher fuel prices,” said Craig Fuller. “Because there’s more demand, and rates are more higher on the spot market.”

The Truckload Rejection Index, which tracks the share of freight turned down by carriers, has ticked back up since mid-September after a sluggish third quarter that Fuller described as “softer than expected.” Both Fuller and Van de Kamp noted that tender rejections typically rise heading into peak season, and that any additional demand surge could accelerate that move — a scenario carriers would welcome. In 2023, that seasonal uptick never materialized due to what Fuller called “the depths of the freight recession.”

Diesel prices remain a significant cash-flow stress even if net earnings are higher. Van de Kamp noted that fuel surcharges do not cover deadhead and repositioning miles, meaning carriers absorb those diesel costs directly. Fuller added that the timing mismatch compounds the pressure: fuel bills are due at the pump or within two to three days, while freight payments can lag 60 to 90 days. Banks, he said, are also “getting a little bit skittish right now in terms of lending money.”

Freight volumes are running higher year over year, though the gains have been modest. Van de Kamp said volume remained relatively soft through the third quarter, while Fuller pointed to capacity erosion — driven by regulatory crackdowns, elevated insurance and driver costs, and diesel-related cash-flow strain — as the primary force tightening the market. “I think we’re going to see more and more reductions in capacity,” Fuller said. Van de Kamp stressed that for the market to remain healthy, “rates are going to have to remain at these higher levels and continue to rise,” given the broader cost environment facing fleets.

• Spot rates rose ~90 cents per mile year over year, from about $2.40 to $3.42, with net-of-fuel earnings up roughly $0.70 per mile versus 2024.
• Tender rejections have risen since mid-September and are tracking above 2023 and 2024 levels, with further increases expected as peak season approaches.
• Carriers face a cash-flow squeeze from record diesel prices despite higher spot rates, as fuel costs are due within days while freight payments can lag 60–90 days.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.