Diesel Up 10 Cents, Spot Rates Up 2: Margin Squeeze

Diesel is up 10 cents in a week while truckload spot rates only gained 2 cents — and that margin squeeze is the real freight market story. In this update, we break down stable tender rejections around 14%, elevated but flattening spot rates, rising contract rates, tight capacity, intermodal share gains and why weak housing and automotive demand are still capping the upside. If you run trucks, buy capacity or watch rates, this is the takeaway fast.

Diesel prices jumped $0.10 per gallon in a single week to just under $6.57 as of Monday, Sept. 28, while all-in driving spot rates rose only $0.02 per mile over the same period — a widening gap that is compressing margins for trucking companies and putting a premium on load utilization.

The National Truckload Index sits 5.2% above its level from last month, when it stood at $3.28 per mile. Diesel, by contrast, is 16.5% higher than a month ago. The divergence between the two metrics is visible in the spread between the DTS fuel index and the NTI spot rate heading into late September, a trend that shows no sign of reversing near-term, said Julie Van de Kamp.

“Fuel is rising more quickly than spot rates,” Van de Kamp said. “So we’ll continue to see that pressure on trucking companies.” While fuel surcharges offset higher diesel costs on contracted freight, carriers absorb the full cost of elevated fuel prices on empty miles, making deadhead reduction a critical lever in the current environment.

“There are so many reasons that there’s still pressure on trucking companies and pulling demand capacity out of the market while demand has remained weak,” Van de Kamp said.

On the capacity side, Van de Kamp cited a recent conversation with Jim Filter, CEO of Schneider, who echoed concerns about regulatory pressure tightening available supply — specifically crackdowns on non-domiciled CDLs and the shutdown of driving schools with inadequate training standards. Those actions are raising barriers to entry for new carriers and drivers, further constraining capacity independent of demand signals.

Demand itself remains the market’s biggest wildcard. The Sonar Truckload Volume Index has held relatively flat through 2024, with two key freight drivers — automotive and housing — still running soft. Discount retail has performed well, but weak consumer sentiment is keeping overall freight demand muted heading into peak season. Tender rejections are holding around 14%, a level Van de Kamp described as healthy and well above year-ago readings, giving carriers continued negotiating leverage with shippers.

Looking ahead through peak, Van de Kamp projected “an elongated and stable peak” rather than a sharp seasonal surge, with contract rates continuing to climb, intermodal maintaining momentum as shippers convert loads for cost savings, and inbound import volumes remaining solid. Absent a meaningful recovery in automotive or housing, or a shift in consumer sentiment, the freight market appears set for more of the same: tight capacity, stable-to-rising rates, and margin pressure concentrated at the fuel line.

• Diesel rose $0.10/gallon in one week to just under $6.57 — 16.5% above last month — while spot rates gained only $0.02/mile, widening the margin squeeze on carriers.
• Tender rejections are holding near 14%, well above year-ago levels, preserving carrier negotiating power despite muted freight demand from weak automotive and housing sectors.
• Regulatory crackdowns on non-domiciled CDLs and substandard driving schools are further tightening available capacity, raising barriers to entry for new carriers and drivers.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.