Intermodal Hits All-Time Highs as Truckload Stays Tight

Intermodal hits all-time highs while truckload rejection rates hold near 14% — and that matters for every carrier and broker watching Q4. In this FreightWaves market update, we break down tender rejections, dry van/reefer/flatbed spot rates, the early-October volume drop and why domestic intermodal keeps taking share. The key question: is capacity still tight, or are fuel costs masking what’s really happening in truckload? #Truckload #Intermodal #FreightMarketUpdate

Domestic intermodal container volumes have reached all-time highs, posting 8% year-over-year growth on top of consistent multi-year gains, even as the truckload market defies its typical early-October lull with tender rejection rates holding stubbornly near 14%.

The intermodal surge matters for carriers, brokers, and shippers because it signals that freight is actively shifting modes. Zach Strickland noted that a meaningful share of the sharp decline in truckload tender volumes seen at the end of September is moving to rail rather than reflecting a broader economic slowdown — a distinction that operators need to track carefully.

“I know a lot of this freight is going intermodal at this point too,” said Strickland. “So not gonna take it as a pure economic signal, but truckload operators and brokers should be monitoring this to see if there is a little bit of easing going on in the market due to this demand side easing that we’re starting to see.”

“It does not look sustainable to me at this point,” Strickland said of intermodal’s growth trajectory, warning that the rail network’s fixed infrastructure makes it difficult to manage volume surges of this magnitude.

On the truckload side, the overall tender rejection rate has hovered around 14% — above August levels — and has not retreated despite the calendar flipping to Q4, which historically represents one of the softest freight periods of the entire fourth quarter. Flatbed and refrigerated rejection rates are both edging higher, while dry van has shown a modest seasonal dip. Refrigerated freight is being supported by active harvest season demand that Strickland said typically persists through January during winter weather events.

Spot rates are adding another layer of complexity. While rejection rates are fuel-agnostic, spot rates are not, and rising diesel costs are pushing dry van, flatbed, and refrigerated spot rates higher. Strickland cautioned against reading the rate increases as a pure signal of capacity tightening, given how heavily diesel inflation is influencing the numbers. Smaller fleets with heavy spot-market exposure are absorbing those costs when the market does not allow for full fuel cost pass-through, resulting in margin compression.

Strickland said it is too early to declare that rates have peaked, given continued supply-demand imbalances and persistent diesel cost pressure. For intermodal, the key watch item is how long an 8% growth rate can continue on infrastructure that cannot easily be expanded — and whether any disruption to rail service could create a significant choke point for domestic freight flows.

• Domestic intermodal volumes hit all-time highs with 8% year-over-year growth, raising questions about rail network capacity limits.
• Truckload tender rejection rates are holding near 14% with unusual stickiness heading into the traditionally soft first two weeks of October.
• Rising diesel costs are inflating spot rates across all modes, compressing margins for smaller fleets with heavy spot-market exposure.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.